Agrobiotechnology in China: Competitiveness Impacts on US Soybean Export Markets

The overall goal of this project is to detennine the impacts on V.S. competitiveness of U.S. soybean export markets stemming from China's biotechnology developments- China has the potential to implement its own agrobiotechnologies. For example, as the most populous country in the world, China promotes the development of agricultural biotechnology in an effort to aclrieve its food self-sufficiency goal. As Clrinese yields and total production of OM foods increase, tlris may displace U.S. exports to China and impact U.S. competitiveness. Our focus is on soybeans, the leading U.S. bulk commodity exported to China, and currently in China's agriobiotech development pipeline. Regardless of the development of agrobiotechnology, Chinese consumers may choose to reject OM soybean products, similar to many European, Japanese and South Korean consumers. In this case, OM soybean products produced in China may go to the export market rather than their domestic market, thus increasing global supply with trade impacts and increased competition for OM products from the United States. However, this scenario could create new market opportunities for non-OM soybean exports from the V.S. to China. No matter which direction China chooses regarding Chinese producers adoption of agrobiotechnology and Chinese consumers acceptance ofGM soybean products, the global implications are substantial due to China's large market size. This study seeks is unique in that it takes a systems approach to determine outcomes on both the supply and demand side for OM soybeans products in China. China's position, and hence potential impact, of biotechnology will be shaped by consumer acceptance, by positions taken by various segments of the soybean supply chain-producers, wholesalers, processors, handlers, and retailers-including multinational corporations, and government policies. Accordingly, our specific objectives include detennination of(l) U.S.-China soybean trade impacts and impacts on U.S. competitiveness due to China's evolving agrobiotechnology developments. (2) Chinese producers' adoption of OM soybeans (via producer surveys in China). (3) the strategic positioning of the Chinese agrifood industry for OM soybeans products (via personal interviews) and (4) Chinese consumers' acceptance of OM soybean products (via consumer surveys in China). Results of this study directly impact U.S. agricultural trade competitiveness, one of the goals ofNRl. Project results will be disseminated widely throughout U.S. government agencies, government policymakers, agricultural industries, universities, and the u.s. Congress.