Collaborative Research: ORCC: Climate change responses in a globally invasive insect: Quantifying the roles of local adaptation, seasonal adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity

Grants and Contracts Details

Description

Winter temperatures are warming twice as fast as summer temperatures in North America, so quantifying the various factors that shape winter biology is critical for predicting organismal responses to climate change (ORCC). Here, we investigate the relative contributions of seasonal polyphenism, local adaptation, and rapid seasonal selection (i.e., ‘adaptive tracking’) in fine-tuning key overwintering traits in a range-expanding globally invasive insect. Our specific goals are to 1) Determine the extent to which local adaptation, adaptive tracking, and phenotypic plasticity shape overwintering traits, 2) Identify genetic changes that contribute to local adaptation, adaptive tracking, and the evolution of plasticity, and 3) Generate predictive models that simulate future local adaptation, adaptive tracking, and the evolution of plasticity under various climate change scenarios. To achieve these goals, we will collect spotted wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii; SWD) from Vermont and Kentucky at distinct times of year and quantify genetic variation in cold tolerance, overwintering survival and post-winter reproduction, and the reaction norms of these traits in seasonal morphotypes. We will use whole genome resequencing of flies from the same collections to determine the whether SWD has persistent overwintering populations in distinct environments and the extent to which genetic structure is shaped by rapid adaptive tracking. The results from Goal 1 and 2 will be used to develop spatially explicit models to predict how reaction norms for overwintering traits evolve in response to climate change. Intellectual Merit Early research on ORCCs suggested that climate change was outpacing evolution, and that phenotypic plasticity was likely the major determinant of whether organisms persist in a warmer world. However, more recent syntheses question that assumption, especially for short-lived animals like insects, where it is becoming increasingly apparent that they can evolve to changing conditions on seasonal time scales. This capacity for adaptive tracking may provide the necessary substrate for rapid climate adaptation, but whether seasonal adaptation contributes to ORCC has not been assessed. Further, the extent to which plasticity itself evolves on these timescales is a significant gap in knowledge. Finally, adaptations to changing winters have received limited attention, despite winter conditions having stronger existing variation (both spatial and interannual) and faster rates of change. While winter temperatures are warming overall, destabilization of the jet stream facilitates periodic extreme cold snaps, leading to complex organismal responses to winter climate change. Thus, there is a critical need to quantify the adaptive and plastic processes that shape overwintering survival to facilitate accurate forecasts of ORCC. Broader Impacts SWD is a globally invasive insect that is a major fruit pest and can cause ~$500 million in annual damage in the western US alone. Thus, insights on seasonality and responses to climate change are critical for improving management of this devastating insect. In tangent to our collections for research, we will collect data on seasonal abundance of SWD, along with local ecological variables, with a custom-made Fluctuating Flies App that will facilitate consolidation and dissemination of population dynamics data to relevant stakeholder groups. We will also develop a summer science module with 4H focused on horticulture, invasive species, and climate change. The project will train 15 undergraduate interns, who will carry out fieldwork, conduct experiments, and contribute to the broader impacts initiatives. The grant will also fund two graduate students and postdoc to lead each project Goal, and we will ensure diversity and equity through our hiring and mentoring practices. Project outcomes will also be integrated with the European Drosophila Population Genetics Consortium (DrosEU), within which PI Nunez is the lead developer for a global repository of population genomic data. Our results will advance DrosEU’s efforts to characterize global genetic diversity and patterns of evolutionary diversification in Drosophila.
StatusActive
Effective start/end date12/1/2411/30/28

Funding

  • National Science Foundation: $360,663.00

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