LEAP-HI: Advancing Precision Neighborhood Scale Weather Forecasting with Autonomous Aircraft Systems and Adaptive Microscale Models

The goal of this proposed five-year effort is to demonstrate that a functional prototype system (consisting of UAS measurements adapting a locally refined numerical model) is capable of producing markedly improved microscale forecasting through model refinement. This will be accomplished using two demonstration experiments. The first will be an experiment conducted over the long term by instrumenting one of University of Kentucky''s research farms with an array of surface weather instruments that will be used to test and validate the hyperlocal forecast granularity and fidelity. The second experiment will be a shorter-term experiment in which the testbed system conducts forecasts for complex, topography (e.g. on the downtown campus of University of Kentucky or, if UAS flight permissions unable to be obtained, within the hills of Eastern Kentucky). The research effort will be guided through the involvement of stakeholders represented by the Office of the Director of Kentucky Emergency Management, members of the operations team at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) and with the local forecast office of the National Weather Service. These represent anticipated government and commercial stakeholders who would benefit from the type of products which would be produced by a final form of the forecast system. Successful completion of this project requires a convergence and integration of the diverse skillsets provided by the proposal team. Specifically, expertise in fluid dynamics, computational science, machine learning and model adaptation, atmospheric science, and UAS operations. Although the team members have overlap in their skillsets, no single researcher has the broad background needed to successfully achieve the project goals. Furthermore, the nature of the proposed effort is such that the tasks are interwoven in such a way that siloing of research activities will guarantee failure of the project. To address this issue, we intend to work with an independent project manager who will manage and coordinate the disparate research efforts.