NASA EPSCoR: 22-2022 R3-0047 Appendix J (SMD/ESD): Assessment of the Effects of Algal Blooms and Storms on Mangrove Forests: Implications for Carbon Fluxes Across the Land-Ocean Interface

Assessment of the Effects of Algal Blooms and Storms on Mangrove forests: Implications for carbon fluxes across the land- ocean interface Proposal Summary Mangrove forests are considered as blue carbon sinks and store more carbon per unit area than any other ecosystems on Earth, provide critical habitats for wildlife, and provide essential ecosystem services to many plant and animal species including humans living in the coastal areas. In the last decade, extreme weather events have occurred more frequently than before due to the climate change. Hurricanes inundate low-lying coastal areas including wetlands and drylands, erode shorelines, and increase the flow of salt water into estuaries and nearby groundwater aquifers. Moreover, high winds associated with storms generally damage and destroy mature forests, such as mangroves. Furthermore, the high rate of runoff during storms increases the amount of nutrients in the environment and promotes the rapid growth of algae and may cause algal blooms when favorable environmental conditions exist. The main goal of this proposed project is to assess the current distribution and effects of algal blooms and storms on mangrove forests. We plan to utilize multi-temporal satellite remotely sensed data including Hyperion, Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9, Sentinel 2 and 3, MODIS and Planet.com imagery, and time series of LCLU and NDVI to examine the behavior of algal blooms and their effect on mangrove forests. Storms also negatively affect such forests and ecosystems. We will examine the relationships among storm events, algal blooms, and the ecological function and services of mangrove forests using imagery and LiDAR/DEM/DTM data collected before and after such events. We will also use the high-resolution data collected by NASA Goddard’s LiDAR, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager program for our project. We will establish a baseline, the year 2003, for our oldest mapping of the study areas. Detailed mangrove forest classification maps of the areas will be created using remotely sensed data for the following years to be used in a time series analysis. We will extract 19 bioclimatic variables from the BIOCLIM dataset version 2 to perform a principal component analysis on the bioclimatic data to eliminate the inter-correlation and to extract independent climatic gradients and employ a comparative approach by using four different species distribution models to predict the potential ranges of mangrove species at regional scales. We will modify the TG model to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and compare the modeled GPP to eddy covariance flux tower site data at the Everglades National Park (FCE LTER SRS-6). In this task, we aim to modify the TG model to improve the accuracy and prediction of satellite-based GPP for Mangrove forests. We expect to produce GPP data for the proposed study sites and document any improvements compared to the GPP estimated from the original TG model. This proposal is aligned with NASA Topic: J.1.1 Improve understanding of carbon fluxes across the land-ocean interface. Our study should provide valuable information to current studies on the spatial distribution of mangroves at regional scales. The resulting time series maps should provide critical baseline information for resource managers to develop conservation and mitigation strategies. The study will also assess how environmental factors affect the occurrence and productivity of this critical wetland species. This proposed study should provide a unique opportunity to initiate a strong collaboration with researchers at NASA GSFC. In addition, the PIs plan to visit NASA GSFC to give seminars to promote the research within the state of Kentucky and to forge sustained collaborations with NASA. Moreover, the results of this research will be presented at professional conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. Kentucky’s NASA EPSCoR jurisdiction solicited proposals from Kentucky university-led research teams to address NASA research needs listed as topics for the FY2022 NASA EPSCoR Rapid Response Research (R3) announcement (NNH22ZHA004C). The NASA Kentucky EPSCoR program collaborated with responding faculty researchers to develop and submit relevant proposals that address R3 task objectives. The proposed work in this proposal is in response to FY22 R3 Appendix J: NASA SMD Earth Science Division (ESD) and the topic of J.1.1: “Improve understanding of carbon fluxes across the land-ocean interface.”