The Potential for Behavioral Change in New High Speed Rail Lines

ABSTRACT The Potential for Behavioral Change in New High Speed Rail Lines A Proposed Study for DB E.C.O. North America Inc. Prime: University of California Davis With: Brigham Young University and University of Kentucky 6.28.2024 The California High Speed Rail (HSR) Project will connect San Francisco to Los Angeles in under three hours, with an Initial Operating Segment (IOS) planned from Merced to Bakers?eld. Ridership forecasts are essential to the planning and implementation of this project and are used in the regular Business Plan and Project Update Report updates. Recently, transportation professionals involved in the project have observed that the current forecasts may not re?ect the degree of behavioral change observed elsewhere in the world when new HSR lines open. Speci?cally, new HSR lines in Europe and Asia have been observed to be highly successful at generating ridership, including from competing airlines. The hypothesis is that models developed from data in a region with no experience of HSR (such as California) may not re?ect how attractive the mode truly is. This research aims to test that hypothesis through a multi-pronged approach that combines reference-class forecasting with a cross-context validation of rail ridership models and data from California, Germany and an Asian location to be determined in the research, with the goal to provide updated ridership modeling parameters re?ecting an accurate attractiveness factor of HSR as a new transport mode, based on ?ndings from other countries. We propose a two-track research project, employing both Reference Class Forecasting as well as Cross-Context Validation. Together, these two tracks will ?t the California HSR ridership forecasts into the context of the global HSR benchmarks and provide valuable supporting evidence so the forecasting is less reliant on a single model. It will also provide evidence as to whether differences can be explained by known factors or are attributable to behavioral differences—the answer will enable DB E.C.O. North America Inc. (DBNA) to make an informed decision about whether to allow an adjustment of the current HSR transport mode attractiveness factor in their future modeling work.