Yield Loss Prediction Tool for Field-Specific Risk Management of Asian Soybean Rust

The soybean rust pathogen (SBR) is an imminent and serious threat to soybean production since its arrival in the United States last year. The possibility of the spores over wintering in southern states and the rapid spread of spores by wind currents and hurricanes coupled with the pathogen's prolific spore production has raised alarm bells within the agricultural community. This pathogen has the potential to reduce crop yields by as much as 80% and may require one or several fungicide applications each season. The available fungicides are expensive and can cost $10-$3 5/acre per application. The risks to producers are obvious. Not using a control measure may decimate their crop, while the use of multiple fungicide applications may result in net economic loss, and increased environmental risks. Research and extension specialists are scrambling to make recommendation pertinent to soybean producers. However, to this del.te, no real tools have yet been developed to help farmers manage the risks associated with soybean crop production under this new threat. Currently, a network of sentinel plots has been established as an early warning system to warn growers that SBR has been found in their area. If producers also had a risk management tool that would predict yield loss, they could access this tool when they receive the warning of SBR in the area. The information they enter into the software tool would then be used to determine the farmer's current yield potential and the yield loss predicted if SBR should defoliate the crop. The potential yield loss could be weighed against the cost of the fungicide application to make sound management decisions. Such a successful risk management tool would improve producer net economic return and guard against unnecessary fungicide applications that can impact the environment and increase the risk of developing fungicide resistance.