Base rates of healthy community-dwelling adults meeting criteria for traumatic encephalopathy syndrome and levels of chronic traumatic encephalopathy certainty

Objective: The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) recently revised criteria for Traumatic Encephalopathy Syndrome (TES) (Katz et al.), aiming to improve the specificity of former TES criteria (Montenigro et al.) and adding methods to gauge certainty of underlying Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE). This study examined base rates of Montenigro et al. and Katz et al. TES criteria in healthy community-dwelling adults. Method: Participants consisted of healthy adults (n = 835; M = 48.1 ± 18.2 years-old, range = 18–85; 37.1% male; 64.1% White) without known history of neurotrauma or psychiatric or neurological conditions. The former and current TES criteria were operationalized using the NIH Toolbox Cognition, Motor, and Emotion batteries and PROMIS-29. Results: Per Katz et al. criteria, 36.9% had symptoms Suggestive of CTE (i.e. either cognitive impairment or neurobehavioral dysregulation), 4.1% had Possible CTE (i.e. requiring cognitive impairment and two additional criteria), and 0.8% had Probable CTE (i.e. requiring cognitive impairment and three additional criteria). The requirement of cognitive impairment for Possible CTE certainty decreased the base rate of Possible CTE tenfold from Montenigro et al. criteria (40.1%). Conclusion: The Katz et al. criteria were met less frequently by healthy adults than the Montenigro et al. criteria. Requiring cognitive impairment and more supportive TES features when gauging CTE certainty may reduce false-positive diagnoses. This finding supports the role of neuropsychologists in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients in TES research studies. To assess specificity, future research should examine base rates of Katz et al. criteria in other psychiatric and neurological conditions.