Central bank communication affects the term-structure of interest rates

Fernando Chague, Rodrigo De-Losso, Bruno Giovannetti, Paulo Manoel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

We empirically analyze how the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) communication affects the term structure of future interest rates. Using principal components analysis, we construct a measure of the Monetary Policy Committee Minutes content that reflects policy makers optimism about the economic conditions. We call this measure the Optimism Factor (OF). When policy makers are more optimistic, reflected by increments in the OF, markets expectations respond and long-term future interest rates drop. Furthermore, when policy makers are pessimistic, reflected by a decrease in the OF, volatility on future interest rates increases. Our result indicates that policy maker communication has an effective impact on market expectations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)147-162
Number of pages16
JournalRevista Brasileira de Economia
Volume69
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Brazil
  • COPOM
  • Central bank
  • Communication
  • Monetary policy
  • Optimism factor
  • Semantic
  • Term-structure of interest rates

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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