Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

Xiu Geng, Fang Wang, Wei Ren, Zhixin Hao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

26 Scopus citations


Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb-Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762-1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981-2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021-2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021-2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2767018
JournalAdvances in Meteorology
StatePublished - 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
,is research was supported by the grants (to IGSNRR) from the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2016YFA0602704) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41831174 and 41671201).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Xiu Geng et al.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Pollution
  • Atmospheric Science


Dive into the research topics of 'Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this