COVID-19 infection and incident diabetes in American Indian and Alaska Native people: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Evidence suggests an increased risk of new-onset diabetes following COVID-19 infection. American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) people were disparately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and historically have had higher diabetes incidence than other racial/ethnic groups in the US. We measured the association between COVID-19 infection and incident diabetes in AI/AN people. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using de-identified patient data from the Indian Health Service's (IHS) National Patient Information Reporting System. We estimated age-adjusted diabetes incidence rates, incidence rate ratios, and adjusted hazard ratios among three cohorts spanning pre-pandemic (1/1/2018–2/28/2020) and pandemic (3/1/2020–12/31/2021) timeframes: 1) pre-pandemic cohort (1,503,085 individuals); 2) no-COVID-19 pandemic cohort (1,344,339 individuals); and 3) COVID-19 cohort (176,483 individuals). Findings: The COVID-19 cohort had an increased hazard of diabetes compared to the no-COVID-19 group (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.50–1.62) and the pre-pandemic group (aHR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.22–1.32). The association between COVID-19 infection and new-onset diabetes was stronger in those with severe COVID-19 illness. A sensitivity analysis comparing the COVID-19 cohort to members of other cohorts that had acute upper respiratory infections showed an attenuated but higher risk of new-onset diabetes in those with COVID-19. Interpretation: AI/AN people diagnosed with COVID-19 had an elevated risk of a new diabetes diagnosis when compared to the no-COVID-19 group and the pre-pandemic group. The increased diabetes risk in the COVID-19 group remained in a sensitivity analysis that limited the comparator groups to individuals with an AURI diagnosis. Funding: US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.