Development of pathogen TMDLs within a stochastic framework

Lindell Ormsbee, Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu, Anil Tangirala

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act and EPA's Water Quality Planning and Management Regulations (40 CFR Part 130) require states to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for their water bodies which are not meeting designated uses under technology-based controls for pollution. The TMDL process establishes the allowable loadings of pollutants or other quantifiable parameters for a water body based on the relationship between pollution sources and in-stream water quality conditions. Currently, most TMDLs are developed using a continuous simulation approach that employs a traditional deterministic rainfall-runoff model (e.g. HSPF). Use of such an approach in developing pathogen TMDLs can be problematic due to the water mass-balance errors which normally remain following even the "best" hydrologic calibration effort, and due to the challenge of calibrating the predicted pathogen loads to the erratic pattern of most observed pathogen data. In the current study both flow and pathogen loadings are modeled using probability distributions that are evaluated using a system dynamics modeling environment (e.g. STELLA) and Monte-Carlo simulation. The proposed approach has the advantage of eliminating mass-balance errors by using observed stream flow as opposed to rainfall as well as a better way of characterizing the probability of success of associated management strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2004 World Water and Environmetal Resources Congress
Subtitle of host publicationCritical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management
EditorsG. Sehlke, D.F. Hayes, D.K. Stevens
Pages1152-1160
Number of pages9
StatePublished - 2004
Event2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress: Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management - Salt Lake City, UT, United States
Duration: Jun 27 2004Jul 1 2004

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2004 World Water and Environmetal Resources Congress: Critical Transitions in Water and Environmetal Resources Management

Conference

Conference2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress: Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySalt Lake City, UT
Period6/27/047/1/04

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering (all)

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