Disaggregated Substitution Patterns Between Plant-Based and Animal Meats: Evidence From U.S. Household Purchases

A shift towards plant-based diets has appeared as a sustainable solution to the increasing carbon footprint. Despite a significant surge in popularity, the efficacy of plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) in achieving the stated goals of enhancing public health, environmental sustainability, and animal welfare through the displacement of animal-based meats (ABMs) remains inconclusive. Leveraging detailed, representative household scanner data from 2019 to 2021 for 136,553 households, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer demand for PBMAs relative to ABMs. Unlike prior research that primarily relied on experimental methods or highly aggregated market-level data, this study investigates the extent to which consumers have shifted their protein choices from traditional ABM options to PBMAs based on 26 detailed product categories, thereby offering new insights into the full spectrum of consumer preferences for PBMAs et ABMs. We find that consumers allocate a marginal proportion of their meat budget to PBMAs and are more responsive to the price of PBMAs compared to ABMs, suggesting that price is still one of the major barriers impeding the protein transition. In addition, our analysis of substitution patterns indicates that, depending on the product category, PBMAs serve as both substitutes (e.g., plan-based beef patty) and complements (e.g., plant-based bacon) to their ABM counterparts. Combining results from market trends and demand relationships, the PBMAs have not yet looked promising in displacing ABMs in the short-term future.