Early predictors of students at risk of poor PANCE performance

Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify early predictors in the physician assistant (PA) program curriculum that could be used to identify students “at risk” of failing the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE), allowing for early intervention. Previous literature implicates grades on foundational coursework as promising early predictors of PANCE performance. Methods Secondary data analyses were performed using student data from 2003 to 2014 school years in the PA program at a large university. Results Path analysis indicated that grades from foundational coursework were the strongest early predictors of PANCE performance, accounting for over half of the variance in PANCE performance. Conclusions Although admission criteria provide some indication of how a student might perform on the PANCE, foundational coursework is the best early predictor of PANCE performance based on this research. Remediation strategies may be most successful when targeting students who have difficulty in these classes during their first year.