Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analyses of economic impacts from climate change have often focused on individual impacted sectors such as forest. However, such an approach may not provide accurate economic impact estimates since climate change will affect multiple sectors simultaneously. Furthermore, imprecise aggregate economic impact estimates may result if one were to add together individual sector impact estimates. We used CGE models to compare economic impacts of individual, additive, and simultaneous climate-induced changes in Canadian and other regions' forest and agriculture sectors over the 2006-2051 period. We found negative additive impact biases in a majority of regions for five of our economic variables including GDP, income, imports, terms of trade, capital, and total output. Positive additive impact biases were found in a majority of regions for four economic variables including welfare, consumption, export, and labor. These findings emphasize the importance of considering impacted sectors simultaneously when using CGE models to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change.
|Number of pages||9|
|Journal||Forest Policy and Economics|
|State||Published - Feb 1 2016|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
We would like to thank the following people who provided data or otherwise vital information, which made this study possible: Wei-Yew Chang (University of British Columbia) Siobhan Hanratty (University of New Brunswick); John G. Neilson, Jelinic Gordan, Julie Denis, Troy Melanson, and France Couture (Statistics Canada); Sophie Allain-Melanson (Industry Canada); Donald D. Kim, Billy Jolliff, Chi Hoang, and Steve Zemanek (USDOC, Bureau of Economic Analysis); Erin Ludlow and Josie Hollingsworth (US Census Bureau); and Angel H. Aguiar (Purdue University). The authors are responsible for any errors.
© 2015 Elsevier B.V.
- Additive impacts
- Climate change impacts
- Computable general equilibrium
- Simultaneous impacts
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Sociology and Political Science
- Economics and Econometrics
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law