Economic Impacts of Projected White Oak (Quercus alba L.) Timber Supply in Kentucky: A CGE Model Analysis

Gaurav Dhungel, Thomas O. Ochuodho

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Demand for high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky has been increasing for decades. Concurrently, Kentucky is witnessing ecological shifts in the historically white oak-dominated forests, mirroring the structural changes in oak forests in the eastern US. This demand–supply dissonance presents a growing concern among stakeholders on the sustainability of white oak and its associated economic implications. In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the potential economic impacts of the projected white oak timber supply following an overall increased supply of white oak sawlogs but reduced supply of high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky. Results generated from a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model indicate a cumulative present-value GDP reduction of USD 3.66 billion, a USD 0.71 billion decline in consumer welfare, and other sectoral contractions over 40 years (2018–2058). These results can be used to advocate for more proactive forest management practices to stabilize a sustained supply of high-quality white oak timber in Kentucky and beyond.

Original languageEnglish
Article number93
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 by the authors.


  • CGE model
  • high-quality sawlogs
  • sustainable timber supply
  • white oak

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Forestry


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