Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia

Lei Yu, Suzanne L. Tyas, David A. Snowdon, Richard J. Kryscio

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations


This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-ε4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3334-3343
Number of pages10
JournalComputational Statistics and Data Analysis
Issue number9
StatePublished - Jul 1 2009

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was funded by National Institute on Aging grants R01 AG09862, K04 AG00553, and P50 AG05144, by a grant from the Kleberg Foundation, and by a University of Kentucky Research Professorship. This study would not have been possible without the support of the members, leaders, and health care providers of the School Sisters of Notre Dame religious congregation.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics


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