Three experiments tested (1) whether anchoring (and insufficient adjustment) will occur during generation of subjective probabilities and (2) whether situation familiarity and performance-contingent incentives will reduce any anchoring effect. A total of 336 business school students either chose between two alternatives based on a preliminary judgment of relatively unlikely (low anchor) or likely (high anchor) event probabilities before generating final probability assessments or were in a no-choice control condition. The results indicate a strong anchoring effect. The anchoring effect is so dominant that increasing situational familiarity did not result in decreased anchoring. Monetary/recognition incentives for accurate judgments did, however, result in significantly less anchoring. Implications are suggested for research on judgment processes and the concept of professional judgment expertise.
|Number of pages||15|
|Journal||Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes|
|State||Published - Aug 1989|
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Applied Psychology
- Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management