Abstract
Three experiments tested (1) whether anchoring (and insufficient adjustment) will occur during generation of subjective probabilities and (2) whether situation familiarity and performance-contingent incentives will reduce any anchoring effect. A total of 336 business school students either chose between two alternatives based on a preliminary judgment of relatively unlikely (low anchor) or likely (high anchor) event probabilities before generating final probability assessments or were in a no-choice control condition. The results indicate a strong anchoring effect. The anchoring effect is so dominant that increasing situational familiarity did not result in decreased anchoring. Monetary/recognition incentives for accurate judgments did, however, result in significantly less anchoring. Implications are suggested for research on judgment processes and the concept of professional judgment expertise.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 68-82 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes |
| Volume | 44 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Aug 1989 |
Funding
Financial support for this research was provided by the McKnight Foundation and the Research Committee of the School of Management, University of Minnesota. Helpful comments provided by Richard Helleloid, Robin Keller, and John Payne are gratefully acknowledged. Requests for reprints should be sent to William F. Wright, Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine, CA 92717. 68
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| McKnight Foundation |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Applied Psychology
- Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management