Elective Laparoscopic Paraesophageal Hernia Repair Leads to an Increase in Life Expectancy over Watchful Waiting in Asymptomatic Patients: An Updated Markov Analysis

Objective: The aim of this study was to perform an updated Markov analysis to determine the optimal management strategy for patients with an asymptomatic paraesophageal hernia (PEH): elective laparoscopic hernia repair (ELHR) versus watchful waiting (WW). Background: Currently, it is recommended that patients with an asymptomatic PEH not undergo repair based on a 20-year-old Markov analysis. The current recommendation might lead to preventable hospitalizations for acute PEH-related complications and compromised survival. Methods: A Markov model with updated variables was used to compare life-years (L-Ys) gained with ELHR versus WW in patients with a PEH. One-way sensitivity analyses evaluated the robustness of the analysis to alternative data inputs, while probabilistic sensitivity analysis quantified the level of confidence in the results in relation to the uncertainty across all model inputs. Results: At age 40 to 90, ELHR led to greater life expectancy than WW, particularly in women. The gain in L-Ys (2.6) was greatest in a 40-year-old woman and diminished with increasing age. Sensitivity analysis showed that alternative values resulted in modest changes in the difference in L-Ys, but ELHR remained the preferred strategy. Probabilistic analysis showed that ELHR was the preferred strategy in 100% of 10,000 simulations for age 65, 98% for age 80, 90% for age 85, and 59% of simulations in 90-year-old women. Conclusions: This updated analysis showed that ELHR leads to an increase in L-Ys over WW in healthy patients aged 40 to 90 years with an asymptomatic PEH. In this new paradigm, all patients with a PEH, regardless of symptoms, should be referred for the consideration of elective repair to maximize their life expectancy.