Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard

Tyler J. Lark, Nathan P. Hendricks, Aaron Smith, Nicholas Pates, Seth A. Spawn-Lee, Matthew Bougie, Eric G. Booth, Christopher J. Kucharik, Holly K. Gibbs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

95 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2101084119
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume119
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Keywords

  • Biofuels
  • Environmental policy
  • Greenhouse gas emissions
  • Land use change
  • Water quality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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