Fifteen-year outcomes following conservative management among men aged 65 years or older with localized prostate cancer

Grace L. Lu-Yao, Peter C. Albertsen, Dirk F. Moore, Yong Lin, Robert S. Dipaola, Siu Long Yao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

53 Scopus citations


Background To understand the threat posed by localized prostate cancer and the potential impact of surgery or radiation, patients and healthcare providers require information on long-term outcomes following conservative management. Objective To describe 15-yr survival outcomes and cancer therapy utilization among men 65 years and older managed conservatively for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer. Design, settings, and participants This is a population-based cohort study with participants living in predefined geographic areas covered by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. The study includes 31 137 Medicare patients aged ≥65 yr diagnosed with localized prostate cancer in 1992-2009 who initially received conservative management (no surgery, radiotherapy, cryotherapy, or androgen deprivation therapy [ADT]). All patients were followed until death or December 31, 2009 (for prostate cancer-specific mortality [PCSM]) and December 31, 2011 (for overall mortality). Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Competing-risk analyses were used to examine PCSM, overall mortality, and utilization of cancer therapies. Results and limitations The 15-yr risk of PCSM for men aged 65-74 yr diagnosed with screening-detected prostate cancer was 5.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-8.0%) for T1c Gleason 5-7 and 22% (95% CI 16-35%) for Gleason 8-10 disease. After 15 yr of follow-up, 24% (95% CI 21-27%) of men aged 65-74 yr with screening-detected Gleason 5-7 cancer received ADT. The corresponding result for men with Gleason 8-10 cancer was 38% (95% CI 32-44%). The major study limitations are the lack of data for men aged <65 yr and detailed clinical information associated with secondary cancer therapy. Conclusions The 15-yr outcomes following conservative management of newly diagnosed Gleason 5-7 prostate cancer among men aged ≥65 yr are excellent. Men with Gleason 8-10 disease managed conservatively face a significant risk of PCSM. Patient summary We examined the long-term survival outcomes for a large group of patients diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who did not have surgery, radiotherapy, cryotherapy, or androgen deprivation therapy in the first 6 mo after cancer diagnosis. We found that the 15-yr disease-specific survival is excellent for men diagnosed with Gleason 5-7 disease. The data support conservative management as a reasonable choice for elderly patients with low-grade localized prostate cancer.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)805-811
Number of pages7
JournalEuropean Urology
Issue number5
StatePublished - Nov 1 2015

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 European Association of Urology.


  • Population-based study
  • Prostatic neoplasm
  • Survival

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Urology


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