Abstract
China established the Giant Panda National Park for ecological and species protection. New management requirements will impact the socioeconomic sustainability of the Baoxing River watershed, the core area of the national park. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to explore future temporal distribution and magnitude of discharge in the Baoxing River watershed under climate and land use change to evaluate potential impacts on the local economy. Six scenarios were explored according to land use changes and climate emission scenarios. Peak discharge is predicted to shift to May through July in contrast to July through September during the base evaluation period. The gross industrial output and tax revenue of the cascade hydropower system in the watershed were predicted to increase by 68 and 95 million USD/year and 2.9 and 3.8 million USD/year, respectively, compared to the base year 2016 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. However, due to the overall loss of the mining industry, the gross industrial output and tax revenue of hydropower and mining in the watershed were predicted to decrease by 125 and 233 million USD/year and 4.1 and 9 million USD/year, respectively, compared to the base year 2016. Findings are important for policy development to maintain ecological security and achieve sustainable economic development within the watershed.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1561-1574 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2022 The Authors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Water Resources Association.
Funding
The authors are particularly grateful to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Sichuan University, and Sichuan Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences for their technical support of the research. And the authors thank all those who assisted in data collection. This study was supported by an international collaboration project of Bureau of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province (grant number 2020YFH0023); China International Center for Economic and Technical Exchanges (grant number NOR/15/301/16/003); and the Scholarship Council of China (grant number 201808515173).
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| China International Center for Economic and Technical Exchanges | NOR/15/301/16/003 |
| Sichuan Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences | |
| University of Nebraska–Lincoln | |
| China Scholarship Council | 201808515173 |
| China Scholarship Council | |
| Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province | 2020YFH0023 |
| Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province | |
| Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan |
Keywords
- Giant Panda National Park
- SWAT model
- climate change
- hydropower
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecology
- Water Science and Technology
- Earth-Surface Processes
