## Abstract

First-order, second-moment (FOSM) formulations are useful tools for assessing uncertainty in GIS based submarine slope stability models. In the simplest applications, variables are assumed to be uncorrelated. In some cases, however, correlation among variables may be significant enough to require inclusion. Correlations among variables can be incorporated by creating an empirical covariance matrix and combining it with analytically derived expressions for partial derivatives of the factor of safety equation. Example calculations show that ignoring correlated variables over-predicts the probability of sliding for gentle slopes and underpredicts the probability of sliding for steep slopes, with small differences for moderate slopes. GIS-based application is illustrated using a hypothetical example motivated by an actual deepwater geohazard assessment, showing areas in which the use of uncorrelated rather than correlated variables over-predicts the likelihood of instability.

Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research |

Pages | 529-536 |

Number of pages | 8 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - 2016 |

### Publication series

Name | Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research |
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Volume | 41 |

ISSN (Print) | 1878-9897 |

ISSN (Electronic) | 2213-6959 |

### Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.

## Keywords

- FOSM
- GIS
- Probabilistic
- Slope stability

## ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Global and Planetary Change
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Economic Geology
- Computers in Earth Sciences
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law