Incorporating correlated variables into GIS-based probabilistic submarine slope stability assessments

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

First-order, second-moment (FOSM) formulations are useful tools for assessing uncertainty in GIS based submarine slope stability models. In the simplest applications, variables are assumed to be uncorrelated. In some cases, however, correlation among variables may be significant enough to require inclusion. Correlations among variables can be incorporated by creating an empirical covariance matrix and combining it with analytically derived expressions for partial derivatives of the factor of safety equation. Example calculations show that ignoring correlated variables over-predicts the probability of sliding for gentle slopes and underpredicts the probability of sliding for steep slopes, with small differences for moderate slopes. GIS-based application is illustrated using a hypothetical example motivated by an actual deepwater geohazard assessment, showing areas in which the use of uncorrelated rather than correlated variables over-predicts the likelihood of instability.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSubmarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences, 7th International Symposium
EditorsGeoffroy Lamarche, Joshu Mountjoy, Suzanne Bull, Tom Hubble, Sebastian Krastel, Emily Lane, Aaron Micallef, Lorena Moscardelli, Christof Mueller, Ingo Pecher, Susanne Woelz
Pages529-536
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9783319209784
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016

Publication series

NameSubmarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences, 7th International Symposium

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Nuclear and High Energy Physics

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