IS FERTILITY A LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR?

Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman, Steven Lugauer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)541-565
Number of pages25
JournalEconomic Journal
Volume131
Issue number634
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Royal Economic Society.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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