Meta-Analytic Modeling of the Severity–Yield Relationships in Soybean Frogeye Leaf Spot Epidemics

Frogeye leaf spot (FLS), caused by Cercospora sojina, is an important foliar disease affecting soybean in the United States. A meta-analytic approach including 39 fungicide trials conducted from 2012 to 2021 across eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee) was used to assess the relationship between FLS severity and soybean yield. Correlation and regression analyses were performed separately to determine Fisher’s transformation of correlation coefficients (Z_r), intercept (b₀) and slope (b₁). Disease pressure (low severity, #34.5; high severity, >34.5%) and yield class (low, #3,352; high, >3,352 kg/ha) were included as categorical moderators. Pearson’s r̅, obtained from back-transforming the Z̅_r estimated by an overall random-effects model, showed a significant negative linear relationship between FLS severity and yield (r̅ = −0.60). The Z̅_r was affected by disease pressure (P = 0.0003) but not by yield class (P = 0.8141). A random-coefficient model estimated a slope of −19 kg/ha for each percent severity for a mean attainable yield of 3,719.9 kg/ha. Based on the overall mean (95% CI) of the intercept and slope estimated by the random-coefficients model, the estimated overall relative damage coefficient was 0.51% (0.36 to 0.69), indicating that a percent increase in FLS severity reduced yield by 0.51%. The best model included yield class as a covariate, and population-average intercepts differed significantly between low (3,455.1 kg/ha) and high (3,842.7 kg/ha) yield classes. This highlights the potential impact of FLS on soybean yield if not managed and may help in disease management decisions.