Modeling the Tradeoff Between Water Loss, Chlorine Residuals, and Trihalomethanes in Rural Appalachia, USA

Small rural water utilities in the Appalachia region of the US often experience extreme water loss while struggling to maintain water quality compliance. This study quantifies the impact of reducing water loss on distribution system water quality in Martin County, Kentucky. Hydraulic and water quality models were developed, calibrated, and validated using EPANET for chlorine residuals and KYPIPE for trihalomethane (TTHM) formation. The models evaluated water loss reduction scenarios ranging from the current 70% to the industry target of 15%. Results showed that lowering water loss increased residence times, causing chlorine residual declines of 22–68%, with one site falling to the 0.2 mg/L threshold. TTHM concentrations increased by 12–18% in winter–spring and 26–44% in summer–fall, with two sites exceeding the individual 0.080 mg/L maximum contaminant level. These novel findings indicate that reducing water loss can unintentionally degrade water quality, underscoring the need for integrated planning. Recommended mitigation strategies include seasonal operational adjustments, water source and TTHM precursor management, optimized tank management, targeted flushing, and phased infrastructure upgrades. The modeling framework developed offers potential for broader application in other rural systems facing similar challenges.