Oil price shocks and the U.S. stock market: Do sign and size matter?

Zeina Alsalman, Ana María Herrera

Research output: Contribution to specialist publicationArticle

61 Scopus citations

Abstract

We investigate the effect of oil price innovations on the U.S. stock market using a model that nests symmetric and asymmetric responses to positive and negative oil price innovations. We find no evidence of asymmetry for aggregate stock returns, and only very limited evidence for 49 industry-level portfolios. Moreover, these asymmetries do not match up well with conventional views regarding energy-dependent sectors of the economy. Instead, asymmetries are more likely driven by the effect of oil price innovations on expected and/or realized demand. We inquire whether the size of the shock matters in that doubling the size of the shock more (or less) than doubles the size of the response, finding that the effect of a 2.s.d innovation is just about double the magnitude of the impact of a 1.s.d innovation. Furthermore, we find no support for the conjecture that shocks that exceed a threshold have an asymmetric effect on stock returns.

Original languageEnglish
Pages171-188
Number of pages18
Volume36
No3
Specialist publicationEnergy Journal
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2015 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Keywords

  • Asymmetric responses
  • Oil prices
  • U.S. stock returns

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • General Energy

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