TY - JOUR
T1 - On the role of variable incubation periods in simple epidemic models
AU - Malice, Marie Pierre
AU - Kryscio, Richard J.
PY - 1989
Y1 - 1989
N2 - The paper formulates a simple stochastic model which can be used to describe the early spread of an epidemic in a large population. Comparison of the behaviour of the epidemic under different assumptions for the distribution of the incubation period are made using the concept of partial ordering between random variables. It is shown that the process describing the infectious contacts between individuals has a major effect on the comparison of the different models. These results have important implications for modelling the AIDS epidemic.
AB - The paper formulates a simple stochastic model which can be used to describe the early spread of an epidemic in a large population. Comparison of the behaviour of the epidemic under different assumptions for the distribution of the incubation period are made using the concept of partial ordering between random variables. It is shown that the process describing the infectious contacts between individuals has a major effect on the comparison of the different models. These results have important implications for modelling the AIDS epidemic.
KW - AIDS modelling
KW - Branching processes
KW - Epidemic models
KW - Stochastic comparisons
KW - Variable incubation periods
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77957183560&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77957183560&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/imammb/6.4.233
DO - 10.1093/imammb/6.4.233
M3 - Article
C2 - 2577998
AN - SCOPUS:77957183560
SN - 1477-8599
VL - 6
SP - 233
EP - 242
JO - Mathematical Medicine and Biology
JF - Mathematical Medicine and Biology
IS - 4
ER -
