On the role of variable incubation periods in simple epidemic models

Marie Pierre Malice, Richard J. Kryscio

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

The paper formulates a simple stochastic model which can be used to describe the early spread of an epidemic in a large population. Comparison of the behaviour of the epidemic under different assumptions for the distribution of the incubation period are made using the concept of partial ordering between random variables. It is shown that the process describing the infectious contacts between individuals has a major effect on the comparison of the different models. These results have important implications for modelling the AIDS epidemic.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)233-242
Number of pages10
JournalMathematical Medicine and Biology
Volume6
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1989

Keywords

  • AIDS modelling
  • Branching processes
  • Epidemic models
  • Stochastic comparisons
  • Variable incubation periods

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience (all)
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology (all)
  • Environmental Science (all)
  • Pharmacology
  • Applied Mathematics

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