Perceiving Greater Variety Among Past Conflicts With a Focal Goal Reduces Expected Goal Conflict

Many important personal goals, such as health, career, finances, and social relationships, entail repeatedly performing the same (or similar) actions over time (e.g., to exercise daily or save money weekly). When pursuing such ongoing goals, people are likely to accumulate multiple experiences of goal conflict (e.g., multiple occasions when one failed to exercise or save as intended). How might these past experiences of goal conflict inform expectations about future goal pursuit? This research examines how the perceived relationship among past conflicts with a focal goal—in particular, perceived variety—shapes expectations. Perceived variety refers to the holistic assessment of differentiation (vs. similarity) among items in an assortment. Six studies demonstrate that perceiving greater variety among past conflicts with a focal goal decreases expectations of encountering conflict in the future. This occurs because perceiving greater variety makes the causes of past events seem collectively unstable (i.e., more temporary and one-off). Consequently, holding constant the number and content of past events, perceiving greater variety among past conflicts with a focal goal reduces expected goal conflict. Further, considering past events that prompt (i.e., motivate) less (vs. more) engagement in causal search (i.e., events that are less self-relevant, or positive) attenuates perceived variety’s effects. The findings contribute to understanding of goal conflict, variety and similarity, and forecasting in goal pursuit.