Prediction of Rehospitalization and Death in Severe Heart Failure by Physicians and Nurses of the ESCAPE Trial

Laura M. Yamokoski, Vic Hasselblad, Debra K. Moser, Cynthia Binanay, Ginger A. Conway, Jana M. Glotzer, Karen A. Hartman, Lynne W. Stevenson, Carl V. Leier

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

78 Scopus citations


Background: The predictive accuracy of physician investigators and nurse coordinators in estimating the risk of rehospitalization and death was determined for 373 hospitalized patients with severe advanced heart failure enrolled in the Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial. Methods and Results: Estimates were made at discharge, and patients were followed for 6 months after hospitalization. A statistical prognostic model was developed from clinical and laboratory data for the end points of rehospitalization and death. Both nurse and physician predictions of death were generally associated with the observed deaths (c-indices of 0.675 and 0.611), although the nurses' prediction was significantly better (chi-square = 4.75, P = .029). The prediction ability of the prognostic model was similar to the physicians' model (c-index = 0.603). The predictions of rehospitalization were much weaker for nurse, physician and prognostic models. Conclusions: Nurses' estimations of survival in discharged, advanced-stage heart failure patients were superior to either physicians' or model-based predictions. Not nurses, physicians, or the prognostic model provided useful predictions for rehospitalizations, but this may have resulted from the fact that the rehospitalization estimates did not include the death risk.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8-13
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Cardiac Failure
Issue number1
StatePublished - Feb 2007

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The ESCAPE trial, sponsored by a grant from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, was conducted at 26 academic heart failure and transplantation centers across the United States and Canada. 7 The protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board for Human Subjects at each center, and written informed consent was obtained from each patient before enrollment.


  • Outcomes
  • Prediction
  • Prognosis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine


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