Predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes

Aims: Stroke is an uncommon but serious complication after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). We aimed to identify predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients who suffered NSTE-ACS. Methods and results: We pooled data from six trials (n=31 402) that randomized NSTE-ACS patients either to platelet glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa receptor blockers or to placebo/control therapy. Potential predictors of stroke included treatment, demographic, and clinical characteristics. We identified predictors using univariable and multivariable logistic models, and their performance was evaluated with calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (c-statistic). We found 228 (0.7%) all-cause strokes: 155 (0.5%) non-haemorrhagic, 20 (0.06%) haemorrhagic, and 53 without computed tomography (CT) confirmation. Patients with any type of stroke had a 30-day mortality of 25%. Randomization to GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers was not significantly associated with all-cause stroke [OR (95% CI) 1.08 (0.83-1.41)]. Older age [OR per 10-year increase 1.5 (1.3-1.7)], prior stroke [2.1 (1.4-3.1)], and elevated heart rate [per 10-beat increase 1.1 (1.0-1.2)] were the strongest predictors of 30-day all-cause stroke. Similar predictors were found for non-haemorrhagic and haemorrhagic strokes. Smoking, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, and hypertension were not independent predictors of all-cause stroke. The multivariable model to predict all-cause stroke was well calibrated, but its discrimination was only moderate [c-statistic 0.69 (0.65-0.72)]. Conclusion: Stroke is a rare complication occurring early after NSTE-ACS, but is associated with high mortality. We found no evidence that GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers increase stroke risks. A few clinical characteristics predicted higher stroke risks. Thus, incident strokes in NSTE-ACS patients remain largely unexplained.