Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops

Felipe Benguria; Hidehiko Matsumoto; Felipe Saffie

doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103631

Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops

Felipe Benguria, Hidehiko Matsumoto, Felipe Saffie

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during financial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and export markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms’ product portfolios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent real exchange rate depreciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.

Original language	English
Article number	103631
Journal	Journal of International Economics
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103631
State	Accepted/In press - 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
☆ We are grateful to participants at the “Financial Frictions: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Options for Emerging Economies” conference organized by the Central Bank of Chile and the Inter-American Development Bank and sponsored by the Journal of International Economics. We are especially grateful to our discussants, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Carlos Urrutia and to the organizing committee and editors, including Sofía Bauducco, Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández, Enrique Mendoza, Victoria Nuguer, Alessandro Rebucci, and Martín Uribe. We are also grateful to participants at the 2019 ASSA meeting in Atlanta, the SED 2018 Annual Meetings in St. Louis, the 21st Macroeconomics Conference in Osaka, and LACEA 2018 for insightful comments. All errors are our own.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Endogenous growth
Firm dynamics
Sudden stops
Trade dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Finance
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103631

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abstract = "This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during financial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and export markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms{\textquoteright} product portfolios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent real exchange rate depreciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.",

keywords = "Endogenous growth, Firm dynamics, Sudden stops, Trade dynamics",

author = "Felipe Benguria and Hidehiko Matsumoto and Felipe Saffie",

note = "Funding Information: ☆ We are grateful to participants at the “Financial Frictions: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Options for Emerging Economies” conference organized by the Central Bank of Chile and the Inter-American Development Bank and sponsored by the Journal of International Economics. We are especially grateful to our discussants, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Carlos Urrutia and to the organizing committee and editors, including Sof{\'i}a Bauducco, Roberto Chang, Andr{\'e}s Fern{\'a}ndez, Enrique Mendoza, Victoria Nuguer, Alessandro Rebucci, and Mart{\'i}n Uribe. We are also grateful to participants at the 2019 ASSA meeting in Atlanta, the SED 2018 Annual Meetings in St. Louis, the 21st Macroeconomics Conference in Osaka, and LACEA 2018 for insightful comments. All errors are our own. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Elsevier B.V.",

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AU - Saffie, Felipe

N1 - Funding Information: ☆ We are grateful to participants at the “Financial Frictions: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Options for Emerging Economies” conference organized by the Central Bank of Chile and the Inter-American Development Bank and sponsored by the Journal of International Economics. We are especially grateful to our discussants, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Carlos Urrutia and to the organizing committee and editors, including Sofía Bauducco, Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández, Enrique Mendoza, Victoria Nuguer, Alessandro Rebucci, and Martín Uribe. We are also grateful to participants at the 2019 ASSA meeting in Atlanta, the SED 2018 Annual Meetings in St. Louis, the 21st Macroeconomics Conference in Osaka, and LACEA 2018 for insightful comments. All errors are our own. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2022

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AB - This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during financial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and export markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms’ product portfolios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent real exchange rate depreciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.

KW - Endogenous growth

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KW - Sudden stops

KW - Trade dynamics

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Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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