This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during financial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and export markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms’ product portfolios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent real exchange rate depreciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.
|Journal of International Economics
|Published - Nov 2022
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
☆ We are grateful to participants at the “Financial Frictions: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Options for Emerging Economies” conference organized by the Central Bank of Chile and the Inter-American Development Bank and sponsored by the Journal of International Economics. We are especially grateful to our discussants, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Carlos Urrutia and to the organizing committee and editors, including Sofía Bauducco, Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández, Enrique Mendoza, Victoria Nuguer, Alessandro Rebucci, and Martín Uribe. We are also grateful to participants at the 2019 ASSA meeting in Atlanta, the SED 2018 Annual Meetings in St. Louis, the 21st Macroeconomics Conference in Osaka, and LACEA 2018 for insightful comments. All errors are our own.
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.
- Endogenous growth
- Firm dynamics
- Sudden stops
- Trade dynamics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics