Prognostic usefulness of positive or negative exercise stress echocardiography for predicting coronary events in ensuing twelve months

Stress echocardiography is useful in diagnosing myocardial ischemia in patients with significant coronary artery disease. This study examines the correlation between the results of exercise stress echocardiography and cardiac event rates within 12 months after testing in patients referred for evaluation of possible myocardial ischemia. Cardiac events, defined as myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass surgery, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or death, were tabulated for 360 patients with ≥12 months of follow-up, or a cardiac event within 12 months of follow-up, or both. Wall motion abnormalities at rest were present in 60% of patients. A positive stress echocardiogram, defined as the development of new or worsened wall motion abnormalities, was obtained in 18% of patients (65 of 360), and ≥1 cardiac event during follow-up was present in 14% (n = 49). A cardiac event occurred in 34% of patients (22 of 65) with a positive stress echocardiogram and in 9% (27 of 295) with a negative one. Myocardial infarctions occurred in 9% of patients with a positive stress echocardiogram compared with 2% with a negative test. An insufficient exercise capacity to reliably exclude ischemia was present in 63% of patients (17 of 27) with a cardiac event despite a negative stress echocardiogram. The predictive value of the stress echocardiographic results was enhanced by combining these results with the electrocardiographic results. In summary, a positive stress echocardiogram was associated with a threefold increased incidence of any cardiac event, and a fourfold increased incidence of myocardial infarction within 12 months of follow-up compared with a negative stress echocardiogram. Thus, stress echocardiography is a useful prognosticator of future events in patients with coronary artery disease.