Quantification of uncertainty in a sediment provenance model

A. Karim, I. Ahmed, T. W. Boutton, K. B. Strom, J. F. Fox

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

We quantify and compare model uncertainty derived from sediment provenance or fingerprinting models using mathematical and statistical formulation rooted in the traditional Optimization and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) schemes. An ensemble prediction of soil yield percentage estimation from sub-watersheds of the 60 square-mile urbanized Buffalo Bayou Watershed of Houston was accomplished by forcing Markov chain rainfall time series windows generated by USDA's CLIGEN weather generator module of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) software. In doing so, we also attempt to present a decision support tool that allows us to tell how much of a land area may be considered in simulation such that the model resolution definitively captures the contribution of soil from different sub-watershed sources. This was done by forcing the Bayesian model with varying lead time rainfall time series. Results for a given watershed contribution area shows that the model uncertainty remains constant after a certain lead time forecast. This allows the user to decide on how much land area to consider and when to stop the simulation on reasonable ground.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015
Subtitle of host publicationFloods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress
EditorsVeronica L. Webster, Karen Karvazy
Pages1790-1799
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780784479162
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015
EventWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Austin, United States
Duration: May 17 2015May 21 2015

Publication series

NameWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress

Conference

ConferenceWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAustin
Period5/17/155/21/15

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 ASCE.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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