We quantify and compare model uncertainty derived from sediment provenance or fingerprinting models using mathematical and statistical formulation rooted in the traditional Optimization and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) schemes. An ensemble prediction of soil yield percentage estimation from sub-watersheds of the 60 square-mile urbanized Buffalo Bayou Watershed of Houston was accomplished by forcing Markov chain rainfall time series windows generated by USDA's CLIGEN weather generator module of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) software. In doing so, we also attempt to present a decision support tool that allows us to tell how much of a land area may be considered in simulation such that the model resolution definitively captures the contribution of soil from different sub-watershed sources. This was done by forcing the Bayesian model with varying lead time rainfall time series. Results for a given watershed contribution area shows that the model uncertainty remains constant after a certain lead time forecast. This allows the user to decide on how much land area to consider and when to stop the simulation on reasonable ground.
|Title of host publication||World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015|
|Subtitle of host publication||Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress|
|Editors||Veronica L. Webster, Karen Karvazy|
|Number of pages||10|
|State||Published - 2015|
|Event||World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Austin, United States|
Duration: May 17 2015 → May 21 2015
|Name||World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress|
|Conference||World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems|
|Period||5/17/15 → 5/21/15|
Bibliographical notePublisher Copyright:
© 2015 ASCE.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology