Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

David A.W. Miller; Evan H.Campbell Grant; Erin Muths; Staci M. Amburgey; Michael J. Adams; Maxwell B. Joseph; J. Hardin Waddle; Pieter T.J. Johnson; Maureen E. Ryan; Benedikt R. Schmidt; Daniel L. Calhoun; Courtney L. Davis; Robert N. Fisher; David M. Green; Blake R. Hossack; Tracy A.G. Rittenhouse; Susan C. Walls; Larissa L. Bailey; Sam S. Cruickshank; Gary M. Fellers; Thomas A. Gorman; Carola A. Haas; Ward Hughson; David S. Pilliod; Steven J. Price; Andrew M. Ray; Walt Sadinski; Daniel Saenz; William J. Barichivich; Adrianne Brand; Cheryl S. Brehme; Rosi Dagit; Katy S. Delaney; Brad M. Glorioso; Lee B. Kats; Patrick M. Kleeman; Christopher A. Pearl; Carlton J. Rochester; Seth P.D. Riley; Mark Roth; Brent H. Sigafus

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

David A.W. Miller, Evan H.Campbell Grant, Erin Muths, Staci M. Amburgey, Michael J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T.J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A.G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. FellersThomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steven J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walt Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne Brand, Cheryl S. Brehme, Rosi Dagit, Katy S. Delaney, Brad M. Glorioso, Lee B. Kats, Patrick M. Kleeman, Christopher A. Pearl, Carlton J. Rochester, Seth P.D. Riley, Mark Roth, Brent H. Sigafus

Forestry and Natural Resources

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72 Scopus citations

Abstract

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Original language	English
Article number	3926
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	9
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6
State	Published - Dec 1 2018

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was conducted as part of the Amphibian Decline Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the US Geological Survey. Funding and logistical support for field data collection came from a range of sources including the U.S. Geological Survey—Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, National Science Foundation (DEB-0841758, DEB-1149308), National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499), National Geographic Society, Morris Animal Foundation, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation. Data are deposited at the U.S. Geological Survey’s John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis. This manuscript is contribution 654 of USGS ARMI. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, The Author(s).

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Chemistry (all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (all)
General
Physics and Astronomy (all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

Cite this

Miller, D. A. W., Grant, E. H. C., Muths, E., Amburgey, S. M., Adams, M. J., Joseph, M. B., Waddle, J. H., Johnson, P. T. J., Ryan, M. E., Schmidt, B. R., Calhoun, D. L., Davis, C. L., Fisher, R. N., Green, D. M., Hossack, B. R., Rittenhouse, T. A. G., Walls, S. C., Bailey, L. L., Cruickshank, S. S., ... Sigafus, B. H. (2018). Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities. Nature Communications, 9(1), Article 3926. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

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abstract = "Changing climate will impact species{\textquoteright} ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.",

author = "Miller, {David A.W.} and Grant, {Evan H.Campbell} and Erin Muths and Amburgey, {Staci M.} and Adams, {Michael J.} and Joseph, {Maxwell B.} and Waddle, {J. Hardin} and Johnson, {Pieter T.J.} and Ryan, {Maureen E.} and Schmidt, {Benedikt R.} and Calhoun, {Daniel L.} and Davis, {Courtney L.} and Fisher, {Robert N.} and Green, {David M.} and Hossack, {Blake R.} and Rittenhouse, {Tracy A.G.} and Walls, {Susan C.} and Bailey, {Larissa L.} and Cruickshank, {Sam S.} and Fellers, {Gary M.} and Gorman, {Thomas A.} and Haas, {Carola A.} and Ward Hughson and Pilliod, {David S.} and Price, {Steven J.} and Ray, {Andrew M.} and Walt Sadinski and Daniel Saenz and Barichivich, {William J.} and Adrianne Brand and Brehme, {Cheryl S.} and Rosi Dagit and Delaney, {Katy S.} and Glorioso, {Brad M.} and Kats, {Lee B.} and Kleeman, {Patrick M.} and Pearl, {Christopher A.} and Rochester, {Carlton J.} and Riley, {Seth P.D.} and Mark Roth and Sigafus, {Brent H.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was conducted as part of the Amphibian Decline Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the US Geological Survey. Funding and logistical support for field data collection came from a range of sources including the U.S. Geological Survey—Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, National Science Foundation (DEB-0841758, DEB-1149308), National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499), National Geographic Society, Morris Animal Foundation, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation. Data are deposited at the U.S. Geological Survey{\textquoteright}s John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis. This manuscript is contribution 654 of USGS ARMI. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6",

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Miller, DAW, Grant, EHC, Muths, E, Amburgey, SM, Adams, MJ, Joseph, MB, Waddle, JH, Johnson, PTJ, Ryan, ME, Schmidt, BR, Calhoun, DL, Davis, CL, Fisher, RN, Green, DM, Hossack, BR, Rittenhouse, TAG, Walls, SC, Bailey, LL, Cruickshank, SS, Fellers, GM, Gorman, TA, Haas, CA, Hughson, W, Pilliod, DS, Price, SJ, Ray, AM, Sadinski, W, Saenz, D, Barichivich, WJ, Brand, A, Brehme, CS, Dagit, R, Delaney, KS, Glorioso, BM, Kats, LB, Kleeman, PM, Pearl, CA, Rochester, CJ, Riley, SPD, Roth, M & Sigafus, BH 2018, 'Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities', Nature Communications, vol. 9, no. 1, 3926. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

AU - Miller, David A.W.

AU - Grant, Evan H.Campbell

AU - Muths, Erin

AU - Amburgey, Staci M.

AU - Adams, Michael J.

AU - Joseph, Maxwell B.

AU - Waddle, J. Hardin

AU - Johnson, Pieter T.J.

AU - Ryan, Maureen E.

AU - Schmidt, Benedikt R.

AU - Calhoun, Daniel L.

AU - Davis, Courtney L.

AU - Fisher, Robert N.

AU - Green, David M.

AU - Hossack, Blake R.

AU - Rittenhouse, Tracy A.G.

AU - Walls, Susan C.

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AU - Gorman, Thomas A.

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AU - Hughson, Ward

AU - Pilliod, David S.

AU - Price, Steven J.

AU - Ray, Andrew M.

AU - Sadinski, Walt

AU - Saenz, Daniel

AU - Barichivich, William J.

AU - Brand, Adrianne

AU - Brehme, Cheryl S.

AU - Dagit, Rosi

AU - Delaney, Katy S.

AU - Glorioso, Brad M.

AU - Kats, Lee B.

AU - Kleeman, Patrick M.

AU - Pearl, Christopher A.

AU - Rochester, Carlton J.

AU - Riley, Seth P.D.

AU - Roth, Mark

AU - Sigafus, Brent H.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was conducted as part of the Amphibian Decline Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the US Geological Survey. Funding and logistical support for field data collection came from a range of sources including the U.S. Geological Survey—Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, National Science Foundation (DEB-0841758, DEB-1149308), National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499), National Geographic Society, Morris Animal Foundation, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation. Data are deposited at the U.S. Geological Survey’s John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis. This manuscript is contribution 654 of USGS ARMI. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Publisher Copyright: © 2018, The Author(s).

PY - 2018/12/1

Y1 - 2018/12/1

N2 - Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

AB - Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

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Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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