TY - JOUR
T1 - Racial differences in the performance of existing risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes
T2 - The CARDIA study
AU - Lacy, Mary E.
AU - Wellenius, Gregory A.
AU - Carnethon, Mercedes R.
AU - Loucks, Eric B.
AU - Carson, April P.
AU - Luo, Xi
AU - Kiefe, Catarina I.
AU - Gjelsvik, Annie
AU - Gunderson, Erica P.
AU - Eaton, Charles B.
AU - Wu, Wen Chih
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 by the American Diabetes Association.
PY - 2016/2
Y1 - 2016/2
N2 - Objective In 2010, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) added hemoglobin A1c (A1C) to the guidelines for diagnosing type 2 diabetes. However, existing models for predicting diabetes risk were developed prior to the widespread adoption of A1C. Thus, it remains unknown how well existing diabetes risk prediction models predict incident diabetes defined according to the ADA 2010 guidelines. Accordingly, we examined the performance of an existing diabetes prediction model applied to a cohort of African American (AA) and white adults from the Coronary Artery Risk Development Study in Young Adults (CARDIA). Research Design and Methods We evaluated the performance of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) diabetes risk prediction model among 2,456 participants in CARDIA free of diabetes at the 2005-2006 exam and followed for 5 years. We evaluated model discrimination, calibration, and integrated discrimination improvement with incident diabetes defined by ADA 2010 guidelines before and after adding baseline A1C to the prediction model. Results In the overall cohort, re-estimating the ARIC model in the CARDIA cohort resulted in good discrimination for the prediction of 5-year diabetes risk (area under the curve [AUC] 0.841). Adding baseline A1C as a predictor improved discrimination (AUC 0.841 vs. 0.863, P = 0.03). In race-stratified analyses, model discrimination was significantly higher in whites than AA (AUC AA 0.816 vs. whites 0.902; P = 0.008). Conclusions Addition of A1C to the ARIC diabetes risk predictionmodel improved performance overall and in racial subgroups. However, for all models examined, discrimination was better in whites than AA. Additional studies are needed to further improve diabetes risk prediction among AA.
AB - Objective In 2010, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) added hemoglobin A1c (A1C) to the guidelines for diagnosing type 2 diabetes. However, existing models for predicting diabetes risk were developed prior to the widespread adoption of A1C. Thus, it remains unknown how well existing diabetes risk prediction models predict incident diabetes defined according to the ADA 2010 guidelines. Accordingly, we examined the performance of an existing diabetes prediction model applied to a cohort of African American (AA) and white adults from the Coronary Artery Risk Development Study in Young Adults (CARDIA). Research Design and Methods We evaluated the performance of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) diabetes risk prediction model among 2,456 participants in CARDIA free of diabetes at the 2005-2006 exam and followed for 5 years. We evaluated model discrimination, calibration, and integrated discrimination improvement with incident diabetes defined by ADA 2010 guidelines before and after adding baseline A1C to the prediction model. Results In the overall cohort, re-estimating the ARIC model in the CARDIA cohort resulted in good discrimination for the prediction of 5-year diabetes risk (area under the curve [AUC] 0.841). Adding baseline A1C as a predictor improved discrimination (AUC 0.841 vs. 0.863, P = 0.03). In race-stratified analyses, model discrimination was significantly higher in whites than AA (AUC AA 0.816 vs. whites 0.902; P = 0.008). Conclusions Addition of A1C to the ARIC diabetes risk predictionmodel improved performance overall and in racial subgroups. However, for all models examined, discrimination was better in whites than AA. Additional studies are needed to further improve diabetes risk prediction among AA.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962068651&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84962068651&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2337/dc15-0509
DO - 10.2337/dc15-0509
M3 - Article
C2 - 26628420
AN - SCOPUS:84962068651
SN - 0149-5992
VL - 39
SP - 285
EP - 291
JO - Diabetes Care
JF - Diabetes Care
IS - 2
ER -