Racial redistricting and realignment in southern state legislatures

Competing logit models of the link between the racial composition of districts and party are estimated and then analyzed for all state legislative elections held in the South from 1990 to 1998. Using these models and a decomposition model developed by Grofman and Handley (1998), we decompose changes in seats won by the Democrats since 1990 into redistricting, realignment, and interaction effects. Racial redistricting harmed the Democrats in all states and cost the Democrats control of at least two state Houses. However, the ongoing realignment toward the Republicans played a much greater role in Democratic losses. We find little evidence to support the white-backlash theory, but conclude that Democratic candidates fare better in highland districts compared to other heavily white regions of the South.