Revisiting the connection between state Medicaid expansions and adult mortality

Antonios M. Koumpias; Charles Courtemanche; Jordan W. Jones; Daniela Zapata

doi:10.1002/soej.12719

Revisiting the connection between state Medicaid expansions and adult mortality

Antonios M. Koumpias, Charles Courtemanche, Jordan W. Jones, Daniela Zapata

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults on adult mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the long-run effects of eight state Medicaid expansions from 1994 through 2005 on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, and HIV-related mortality rates using state-level data. We utilize the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method to estimate average effects across all treated states. Using a 5% significance level, we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined. Moreover, there is no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects. These findings imply that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	187-212
Number of pages	26
Journal	Southern Economic Journal
Volume	91
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12719
State	Published - Jul 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Southern Economic Journal published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Southern Economic Association. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Funding

This research received financial support from the Charles Koch Foundation. The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy. We are grateful to the editor, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Institute for Humane Studies' Workshop on Free Markets and Health Care for helpful feedback.

Funders	Funder number
Charles Koch Foundation

Keywords

Medicaid
all-cause mortality
generalized synthetic control method
healthcare reform
healthcare-amenable mortality
public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1002/soej.12719

Cite this

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abstract = "This paper examines the impact of Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults on adult mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the long-run effects of eight state Medicaid expansions from 1994 through 2005 on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, and HIV-related mortality rates using state-level data. We utilize the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method to estimate average effects across all treated states. Using a 5% significance level, we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined. Moreover, there is no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects. These findings imply that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.",

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N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s). Southern Economic Journal published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Southern Economic Association. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

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N2 - This paper examines the impact of Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults on adult mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the long-run effects of eight state Medicaid expansions from 1994 through 2005 on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, and HIV-related mortality rates using state-level data. We utilize the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method to estimate average effects across all treated states. Using a 5% significance level, we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined. Moreover, there is no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects. These findings imply that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.

AB - This paper examines the impact of Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults on adult mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the long-run effects of eight state Medicaid expansions from 1994 through 2005 on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, and HIV-related mortality rates using state-level data. We utilize the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method to estimate average effects across all treated states. Using a 5% significance level, we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined. Moreover, there is no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects. These findings imply that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.

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Revisiting the connection between state Medicaid expansions and adult mortality

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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