Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis and its applications in the central United States

Communities need information about seismic hazards, ground-motion hazards, in particular, to formulate engineering designs for buildings and other structures. Developing scientifically sound ground-motion hazard assessments and associated information in the central United States is challenging, however, because of large uncertainties in the seismic sources, earthquake recurrence intervals, and local geologic conditions. Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis (SSHA) is a viable approach to provide ground-motion hazard information, including time histories and their peak values and response accelerations, for engineering design and other applications. Some perceived advantages of SSHA include (1) resultant ground motions have a clear physical meaning, (2) ground-motion time histories, which are necessary for engineering analysis, are provided, and (3) the results are easily communicated between earth scientists, engineers, and others. We describe and summarize how SSHA has been applied to develop (1) ground-motion time histories and associated parameters and maps from natural earthquakes for engineering design and safety evaluation of bridges and highway facilities and residential buildings and other structures, and (2) potential ground-motion hazards from induced earthquake in the central United States, Kentucky in particular.