Seismic Potential Forecasting in a Deep Longwall Mine

Seismic events can be induced by mining due to unstable rock failures or slips along geologic structures leading to the sudden release of strain energy stored within the rock near underground openings. Depending on their intensity and proximity to the working area, seismic events may raise safety concerns, and thus the forecasting of the seismic potential in advance of mining can mitigate safety hazards. The integration of seismic data into geomechanical modeling can provide a tool for identifying areas with elevated potential for seismic activity. In previous works, a methodology was developed to forecast seismic potentials in a pseudo-2D geomechanical model. In this paper, seismic events, ranging in magnitude from about -1.0 M_L to 3.7 M_L, recorded in a deep longwall mine (> 450 m) in Virginia during mining of six adjacent panels, were evaluated to identify areas where larger magnitude events (> 1 ML) had occurred. A three-dimensional geomechanical model of the same area was constructed in the 3DEC software to calculate the state of energy in the system with the progress of mining along the entire length of each panel. The variation in the energy content of the model was monitored, and zones with potentially damaging events with compression-type and slip-type signatures were identified by defining a Seismic Potential Index (SPI). The results show that slip-type events along bedding planes followed by compressive-type events in the sandstone roof are the mechanism for large seismic events in the studied mine. The locations of anomalous events corresponded to the regions where both compression-type SPI (C-SPI) and slip-type SPI (S-SPI) were elevated. The modeling results were compared with the recorded seismic events to evaluate the model performance in forecasting the seismic potentials. The model was able to forecast 100% of regions with elevated and moderate seismic potential and 89% of regions with low seismic potential. This shows the applicability of energy balance calculations for forecasting the approximate location and timing of destructive seismic events in advance of mining.