Selection bias and continuous-time duration models: Consequences and a proposed solution

Frederick J. Boehmke, Daniel S. Morey, Megan Shannon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

96 Scopus citations


This article analyzes the consequences of nonrandom sample selection for continuous-time duration analyses and develops a new estimator to correct for it when necessary. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo analyses that estimate common duration models as well as our proposed duration model with selection. These simulations show that ignoring sample selection issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, including the appearance of (nonexistent) duration dependence. In addition, our proposed estimator is found to be superior in root mean-square error terms when nontrivial amounts of selection are present. Finally, we provide an empirical application of our method by studying whether self-selectivity is a problem for studies of leaders' survival during and following militarized conflicts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)192-207
Number of pages16
JournalAmerican Journal of Political Science
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2006

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations


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