We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.
|Issue number||9 September|
|State||Published - Sep 2020|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This project began during the workshop “Understanding and Exploring Network Epidemiology in the Time of Coronavirus”, organized by the University of Maryland’s COMBINE program in network biology and the University of Vermont’s Complex Systems Center in April 2020. The authors would like to thank the organizers of this workshop. B. Beckage and J. Molofsky acknowledge the Networks in Ecology workshop supported by the University of Vermont’s Presidents office.
© 2020 Braun et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (all)
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences (all)