Solar activity and the westerlies dominate decadal hydroclimatic changes over arid Central Asia

Dongna Yan; Hai Xu; Jianghu Lan; Kangen Zhou; Yuanda Ye; Jixiao Zhang; Zhisheng An; Kevin M. Yeager

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.12.006

Solar activity and the westerlies dominate decadal hydroclimatic changes over arid Central Asia

Dongna Yan, Hai Xu, Jianghu Lan, Kangen Zhou, Yuanda Ye, Jixiao Zhang, Zhisheng An, Kevin M. Yeager

Earth and Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

Hydroclimatic changes over arid central Asia (ACA) are not fully understood, primarily due to the paucity of accurate, high-resolution climatic records. Here we reconstruct hydroclimatic changes over the past 160 years at Lake Karakul, Pamir Plateau (central Asia), using multiple, high-resolution (~0.8 yr) sedimentary proxies. We find that hydroclimatic changes at Lake Karakul are well correlated with meteorological records, the snow equilibrium line altitude (ELA), reconstructed regional precipitation, the westerly index, and total solar irradiance (TSI). We contend that solar activity and the westerlies were the dominant influences on ACA hydroclimatic variations during the period of record: (1) solar activity dominates regional temperature variations, precipitation/evaporation, and the advance/retreat of glaciers; (2) stronger westerly intensity (corresponding to higher westerly index and higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index) brings more water vapor from the west to ACA, and vice versa; and (3) the southerly migration of the westerly jet stream, which is closely related to lower TSI and temperatures, could favor more water vapor transported to ACA areas, and vice versa. We anticipate that continued global warming will result in more rapid glacial retreat, enhanced evaporation, lake area shrinkage, and deeper aridification over ACA.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	53-60
Number of pages	8
Journal	Global and Planetary Change
Volume	173
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.12.006
State	Published - Feb 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169; 41502171); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments.

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169 ; 41502171 ); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003 ); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406 ). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Arid Central Asia
Glacier
Lake Karakul
Solar activity
Water vapor sources
Westerly

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Oceanography
Global and Planetary Change

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10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.12.006

Cite this

@article{f877bbc4fece4261b286e222d638ebed,

title = "Solar activity and the westerlies dominate decadal hydroclimatic changes over arid Central Asia",

abstract = "Hydroclimatic changes over arid central Asia (ACA) are not fully understood, primarily due to the paucity of accurate, high-resolution climatic records. Here we reconstruct hydroclimatic changes over the past 160 years at Lake Karakul, Pamir Plateau (central Asia), using multiple, high-resolution (~0.8 yr) sedimentary proxies. We find that hydroclimatic changes at Lake Karakul are well correlated with meteorological records, the snow equilibrium line altitude (ELA), reconstructed regional precipitation, the westerly index, and total solar irradiance (TSI). We contend that solar activity and the westerlies were the dominant influences on ACA hydroclimatic variations during the period of record: (1) solar activity dominates regional temperature variations, precipitation/evaporation, and the advance/retreat of glaciers; (2) stronger westerly intensity (corresponding to higher westerly index and higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index) brings more water vapor from the west to ACA, and vice versa; and (3) the southerly migration of the westerly jet stream, which is closely related to lower TSI and temperatures, could favor more water vapor transported to ACA areas, and vice versa. We anticipate that continued global warming will result in more rapid glacial retreat, enhanced evaporation, lake area shrinkage, and deeper aridification over ACA.",

keywords = "Arid Central Asia, Glacier, Lake Karakul, Solar activity, Water vapor sources, Westerly",

author = "Dongna Yan and Hai Xu and Jianghu Lan and Kangen Zhou and Yuanda Ye and Jixiao Zhang and Zhisheng An and Yeager, {Kevin M.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169; 41502171); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169 ; 41502171 ); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003 ); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406 ). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2019",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.12.006",

language = "English",

volume = "173",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Solar activity and the westerlies dominate decadal hydroclimatic changes over arid Central Asia

AU - Yan, Dongna

AU - Xu, Hai

AU - Lan, Jianghu

AU - Zhou, Kangen

AU - Ye, Yuanda

AU - Zhang, Jixiao

AU - An, Zhisheng

AU - Yeager, Kevin M.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169; 41502171); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 41672169 ; 41502171 ); the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number: 132B61KYSB20130003 ); and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (grant number: SKLLQG1406 ). We thank Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for very constructive comments. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2019/2

Y1 - 2019/2

N2 - Hydroclimatic changes over arid central Asia (ACA) are not fully understood, primarily due to the paucity of accurate, high-resolution climatic records. Here we reconstruct hydroclimatic changes over the past 160 years at Lake Karakul, Pamir Plateau (central Asia), using multiple, high-resolution (~0.8 yr) sedimentary proxies. We find that hydroclimatic changes at Lake Karakul are well correlated with meteorological records, the snow equilibrium line altitude (ELA), reconstructed regional precipitation, the westerly index, and total solar irradiance (TSI). We contend that solar activity and the westerlies were the dominant influences on ACA hydroclimatic variations during the period of record: (1) solar activity dominates regional temperature variations, precipitation/evaporation, and the advance/retreat of glaciers; (2) stronger westerly intensity (corresponding to higher westerly index and higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index) brings more water vapor from the west to ACA, and vice versa; and (3) the southerly migration of the westerly jet stream, which is closely related to lower TSI and temperatures, could favor more water vapor transported to ACA areas, and vice versa. We anticipate that continued global warming will result in more rapid glacial retreat, enhanced evaporation, lake area shrinkage, and deeper aridification over ACA.

AB - Hydroclimatic changes over arid central Asia (ACA) are not fully understood, primarily due to the paucity of accurate, high-resolution climatic records. Here we reconstruct hydroclimatic changes over the past 160 years at Lake Karakul, Pamir Plateau (central Asia), using multiple, high-resolution (~0.8 yr) sedimentary proxies. We find that hydroclimatic changes at Lake Karakul are well correlated with meteorological records, the snow equilibrium line altitude (ELA), reconstructed regional precipitation, the westerly index, and total solar irradiance (TSI). We contend that solar activity and the westerlies were the dominant influences on ACA hydroclimatic variations during the period of record: (1) solar activity dominates regional temperature variations, precipitation/evaporation, and the advance/retreat of glaciers; (2) stronger westerly intensity (corresponding to higher westerly index and higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index) brings more water vapor from the west to ACA, and vice versa; and (3) the southerly migration of the westerly jet stream, which is closely related to lower TSI and temperatures, could favor more water vapor transported to ACA areas, and vice versa. We anticipate that continued global warming will result in more rapid glacial retreat, enhanced evaporation, lake area shrinkage, and deeper aridification over ACA.

KW - Arid Central Asia

KW - Glacier

KW - Lake Karakul

KW - Solar activity

KW - Water vapor sources

KW - Westerly

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EP - 60

ER -

Solar activity and the westerlies dominate decadal hydroclimatic changes over arid Central Asia

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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