Statistical security incident forensics against data falsification in smart grid advanced metering infrastructure

Compromised smart meters reporting false power consump-Tion data in Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) may have drastic consequences on a smart grid's operations. Most existing works only deal with electricity theft from customers. However, several other types of data falsification attacks are possible, when meters are compromised by organized rivals. In this paper, we first propose a taxonomy of possible data falsification strategies such as additive, deductive, camouflage and conflict, in AMI micro-grids. Then, we devise a statistical anomaly detection technique to identify the incidence of proposed attack types, by studying their impact on the observed data. Subsequently, a trust model based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is proposed to identify com- promised smart meters for additive and deductive attacks. The resultant detection rates and false alarms are minimized through a robust aggregate measure that is calculated based on the detected attack type and successfully discriminating legitimate changes from malicious ones. For conflict and camouflage attacks, a generalized linear model and Weibull function based kernel trick is used over the trust score to facilitate more accurate classification. Using real data sets collected from AMI, we investigate several trade-offs that occur between attacker's revenue and costs, as well as the margin of false data and fraction of compromised nodes. Experimental results show that our model has a high true positive detection rate, while the average false alarm rate is just 8%, for most practical attack strategies, without depending on the expensive hardware based monitoring.