The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Lucyna Halupka; Debora Arlt; Jere Tolvanen; Alexandre Millon; Pierre Bize; Peter Adamík; Pascal Albert; Wayne J. Arendt; Alexander V. Artemyev; Vittorio Baglione; Jerzy Bańbura; Mirosława Bańbura; Emilio Barba; Robert T. Barrett; Peter H. Becker; Eugen Belskii; Mark Bolton; E. Keith Bowers; Joël Bried; Lyanne Brouwer; Monika Bukacińska; Dariusz Bukaciński; Lesley Bulluck; Kate F. Carstens; Inês Catry; Motti Charter; Anna Chernomorets; Rita Covas; Monika Czuchra; Donald C. Dearborn; Florentino de Lope; Adrián S. Di Giacomo; Valery C. Dombrovski; Hugh Drummond; Michael J. Dunn; Tapio Eeva; Louise M. Emmerson; Yngve Espmark; Juan A. Fargallo; Sergey I. Gashkov; Elena Yu Golubova; Michael Griesser; Michael P. Harris; Jeffrey P. Hoover; Zuzanna Jagiełło; Patrik Karell; Janusz Kloskowski; Walter D. Koenig; Heikki Kolunen; Małgorzata Korczak-Abshire; Erkki Korpimäki; Indrikis Krams; Miloš Krist; Sonja C. Krüger; Boris D. Kuranov; Xavier Lambin; Michael P. Lombardo; Andrey Lyakhov; Alfonso Marzal; Anders P. Møller; Verónica C. Neves; Jan Tøttrup Nielsen; Alexander Numerov; Beata Orłowska; Daniel Oro; Markus Öst; Richard A. Phillips; Hannu Pietiäinen; Vicente Polo; Jiří Porkert; Jaime Potti; Hannu Pöysä; Thierry Printemps; Jouke Prop; Petra Quillfeldt; Jaime A. Ramos; Pierre Alain Ravussin; Robert N. Rosenfield; Alexandre Roulin; Dustin R. Rubenstein; Irina E. Samusenko; Denis A. Saunders; Michael Schaub; Juan C. Senar; Fabrizio Sergio; Tapio Solonen; Diana V. Solovyeva; Janusz Stępniewski; Paul M. Thompson; Marcin Tobolka; János Török; Martijn van de Pol; Louis Vernooij; Marcel E. Visser; David F. Westneat; Nathaniel T. Wheelwright; Jarosław Wiącek; Karen L. Wiebe; Andrew G. Wood; Andrzej Wuczyński; Dariusz Wysocki; Markéta Zárybnická; Antoni Margalida; Konrad Halupka

doi:10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Lucyna Halupka, Debora Arlt, Jere Tolvanen, Alexandre Millon, Pierre Bize, Peter Adamík, Pascal Albert, Wayne J. Arendt, Alexander V. Artemyev, Vittorio Baglione, Jerzy Bańbura, Mirosława Bańbura, Emilio Barba, Robert T. Barrett, Peter H. Becker, Eugen Belskii, Mark Bolton, E. Keith Bowers, Joël Bried, Lyanne BrouwerMonika Bukacińska, Dariusz Bukaciński, Lesley Bulluck, Kate F. Carstens, Inês Catry, Motti Charter, Anna Chernomorets, Rita Covas, Monika Czuchra, Donald C. Dearborn, Florentino de Lope, Adrián S. Di Giacomo, Valery C. Dombrovski, Hugh Drummond, Michael J. Dunn, Tapio Eeva, Louise M. Emmerson, Yngve Espmark, Juan A. Fargallo, Sergey I. Gashkov, Elena Yu Golubova, Michael Griesser, Michael P. Harris, Jeffrey P. Hoover, Zuzanna Jagiełło, Patrik Karell, Janusz Kloskowski, Walter D. Koenig, Heikki Kolunen, Małgorzata Korczak-Abshire, Erkki Korpimäki, Indrikis Krams, Miloš Krist, Sonja C. Krüger, Boris D. Kuranov, Xavier Lambin, Michael P. Lombardo, Andrey Lyakhov, Alfonso Marzal, Anders P. Møller, Verónica C. Neves, Jan Tøttrup Nielsen, Alexander Numerov, Beata Orłowska, Daniel Oro, Markus Öst, Richard A. Phillips, Hannu Pietiäinen, Vicente Polo, Jiří Porkert, Jaime Potti, Hannu Pöysä, Thierry Printemps, Jouke Prop, Petra Quillfeldt, Jaime A. Ramos, Pierre Alain Ravussin, Robert N. Rosenfield, Alexandre Roulin, Dustin R. Rubenstein, Irina E. Samusenko, Denis A. Saunders, Michael Schaub, Juan C. Senar, Fabrizio Sergio, Tapio Solonen, Diana V. Solovyeva, Janusz Stępniewski, Paul M. Thompson, Marcin Tobolka, János Török, Martijn van de Pol, Louis Vernooij, Marcel E. Visser, David F. Westneat, Nathaniel T. Wheelwright, Jarosław Wiącek, Karen L. Wiebe, Andrew G. Wood, Andrzej Wuczyński, Dariusz Wysocki, Markéta Zárybnická, Antoni Margalida, Konrad Halupka

Biology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Original language	English
Article number	e2208389120
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	120
Issue number	19
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.2208389120
State	Published - May 9 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the information about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).

Keywords

birds
climate change
meta-analysis
offspring production

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

Cite this

Halupka, L., Arlt, D., Tolvanen, J., Millon, A., Bize, P., Adamík, P., Albert, P., Arendt, W. J., Artemyev, A. V., Baglione, V., Bańbura, J., Bańbura, M., Barba, E., Barrett, R. T., Becker, P. H., Belskii, E., Bolton, M., Bowers, E. K., Bried, J., ... Halupka, K. (2023). The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(19), Article e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

@article{1abf2796ee1e40d4981034de0b2b9cee,

title = "The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis",

abstract = "Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.",

keywords = "birds, climate change, meta-analysis, offspring production",

author = "Lucyna Halupka and Debora Arlt and Jere Tolvanen and Alexandre Millon and Pierre Bize and Peter Adam{\'i}k and Pascal Albert and Arendt, {Wayne J.} and Artemyev, {Alexander V.} and Vittorio Baglione and Jerzy Ba{\'n}bura and Miros{\l}awa Ba{\'n}bura and Emilio Barba and Barrett, {Robert T.} and Becker, {Peter H.} and Eugen Belskii and Mark Bolton and Bowers, {E. Keith} and Jo{\"e}l Bried and Lyanne Brouwer and Monika Bukaci{\'n}ska and Dariusz Bukaci{\'n}ski and Lesley Bulluck and Carstens, {Kate F.} and In{\^e}s Catry and Motti Charter and Anna Chernomorets and Rita Covas and Monika Czuchra and Dearborn, {Donald C.} and {de Lope}, Florentino and {Di Giacomo}, {Adri{\'a}n S.} and Dombrovski, {Valery C.} and Hugh Drummond and Dunn, {Michael J.} and Tapio Eeva and Emmerson, {Louise M.} and Yngve Espmark and Fargallo, {Juan A.} and Gashkov, {Sergey I.} and Golubova, {Elena Yu} and Michael Griesser and Harris, {Michael P.} and Hoover, {Jeffrey P.} and Zuzanna Jagie{\l}{\l}o and Patrik Karell and Janusz Kloskowski and Koenig, {Walter D.} and Heikki Kolunen and Ma{\l}gorzata Korczak-Abshire and Erkki Korpim{\"a}ki and Indrikis Krams and Milo{\v s} Krist and Kr{\"u}ger, {Sonja C.} and Kuranov, {Boris D.} and Xavier Lambin and Lombardo, {Michael P.} and Andrey Lyakhov and Alfonso Marzal and M{\o}ller, {Anders P.} and Neves, {Ver{\'o}nica C.} and Nielsen, {Jan T{\o}ttrup} and Alexander Numerov and Beata Or{\l}owska and Daniel Oro and Markus {\"O}st and Phillips, {Richard A.} and Hannu Pieti{\"a}inen and Vicente Polo and Ji{\v r}{\'i} Porkert and Jaime Potti and Hannu P{\"o}ys{\"a} and Thierry Printemps and Jouke Prop and Petra Quillfeldt and Ramos, {Jaime A.} and Ravussin, {Pierre Alain} and Rosenfield, {Robert N.} and Alexandre Roulin and Rubenstein, {Dustin R.} and Samusenko, {Irina E.} and Saunders, {Denis A.} and Michael Schaub and Senar, {Juan C.} and Fabrizio Sergio and Tapio Solonen and Solovyeva, {Diana V.} and Janusz St{\c e}pniewski and Thompson, {Paul M.} and Marcin Tobolka and J{\'a}nos T{\"o}r{\"o}k and {van de Pol}, Martijn and Louis Vernooij and Visser, {Marcel E.} and Westneat, {David F.} and Wheelwright, {Nathaniel T.} and Jaros{\l}aw Wi{\c a}cek and Wiebe, {Karen L.} and Wood, {Andrew G.} and Andrzej Wuczy{\'n}ski and Dariusz Wysocki and Mark{\'e}ta Z{\'a}rybnick{\'a} and Antoni Margalida and Konrad Halupka",

note = "Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the information about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Ha{\l}upka. Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).",

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Halupka, L, Arlt, D, Tolvanen, J, Millon, A, Bize, P, Adamík, P, Albert, P, Arendt, WJ, Artemyev, AV, Baglione, V, Bańbura, J, Bańbura, M, Barba, E, Barrett, RT, Becker, PH, Belskii, E, Bolton, M, Bowers, EK, Bried, J, Brouwer, L, Bukacińska, M, Bukaciński, D, Bulluck, L, Carstens, KF, Catry, I, Charter, M, Chernomorets, A, Covas, R, Czuchra, M, Dearborn, DC, de Lope, F, Di Giacomo, AS, Dombrovski, VC, Drummond, H, Dunn, MJ, Eeva, T, Emmerson, LM, Espmark, Y, Fargallo, JA, Gashkov, SI, Golubova, EY, Griesser, M, Harris, MP, Hoover, JP, Jagiełło, Z, Karell, P, Kloskowski, J, Koenig, WD, Kolunen, H, Korczak-Abshire, M, Korpimäki, E, Krams, I, Krist, M, Krüger, SC, Kuranov, BD, Lambin, X, Lombardo, MP, Lyakhov, A, Marzal, A, Møller, AP, Neves, VC, Nielsen, JT, Numerov, A, Orłowska, B, Oro, D, Öst, M, Phillips, RA, Pietiäinen, H, Polo, V, Porkert, J, Potti, J, Pöysä, H, Printemps, T, Prop, J, Quillfeldt, P, Ramos, JA, Ravussin, PA, Rosenfield, RN, Roulin, A, Rubenstein, DR, Samusenko, IE, Saunders, DA, Schaub, M, Senar, JC, Sergio, F, Solonen, T, Solovyeva, DV, Stępniewski, J, Thompson, PM, Tobolka, M, Török, J, van de Pol, M, Vernooij, L, Visser, ME, Westneat, DF, Wheelwright, NT, Wiącek, J, Wiebe, KL, Wood, AG, Wuczyński, A, Wysocki, D, Zárybnická, M, Margalida, A & Halupka, K 2023, 'The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 120, no. 19, e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effect of climate change on avian offspring production

T2 - A global meta-analysis

AU - Halupka, Lucyna

AU - Arlt, Debora

AU - Tolvanen, Jere

AU - Millon, Alexandre

AU - Bize, Pierre

AU - Adamík, Peter

AU - Albert, Pascal

AU - Arendt, Wayne J.

AU - Artemyev, Alexander V.

AU - Baglione, Vittorio

AU - Bańbura, Jerzy

AU - Bańbura, Mirosława

AU - Barba, Emilio

AU - Barrett, Robert T.

AU - Becker, Peter H.

AU - Belskii, Eugen

AU - Bolton, Mark

AU - Bowers, E. Keith

AU - Bried, Joël

AU - Brouwer, Lyanne

AU - Bukacińska, Monika

AU - Bukaciński, Dariusz

AU - Bulluck, Lesley

AU - Carstens, Kate F.

AU - Catry, Inês

AU - Charter, Motti

AU - Chernomorets, Anna

AU - Covas, Rita

AU - Czuchra, Monika

AU - Dearborn, Donald C.

AU - de Lope, Florentino

AU - Di Giacomo, Adrián S.

AU - Dombrovski, Valery C.

AU - Drummond, Hugh

AU - Dunn, Michael J.

AU - Eeva, Tapio

AU - Emmerson, Louise M.

AU - Espmark, Yngve

AU - Fargallo, Juan A.

AU - Gashkov, Sergey I.

AU - Golubova, Elena Yu

AU - Griesser, Michael

AU - Harris, Michael P.

AU - Hoover, Jeffrey P.

AU - Jagiełło, Zuzanna

AU - Karell, Patrik

AU - Kloskowski, Janusz

AU - Koenig, Walter D.

AU - Kolunen, Heikki

AU - Korczak-Abshire, Małgorzata

AU - Korpimäki, Erkki

AU - Krams, Indrikis

AU - Krist, Miloš

AU - Krüger, Sonja C.

AU - Kuranov, Boris D.

AU - Lambin, Xavier

AU - Lombardo, Michael P.

AU - Lyakhov, Andrey

AU - Marzal, Alfonso

AU - Møller, Anders P.

AU - Neves, Verónica C.

AU - Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup

AU - Numerov, Alexander

AU - Orłowska, Beata

AU - Oro, Daniel

AU - Öst, Markus

AU - Phillips, Richard A.

AU - Pietiäinen, Hannu

AU - Polo, Vicente

AU - Porkert, Jiří

AU - Potti, Jaime

AU - Pöysä, Hannu

AU - Printemps, Thierry

AU - Prop, Jouke

AU - Quillfeldt, Petra

AU - Ramos, Jaime A.

AU - Ravussin, Pierre Alain

AU - Rosenfield, Robert N.

AU - Roulin, Alexandre

AU - Rubenstein, Dustin R.

AU - Samusenko, Irina E.

AU - Saunders, Denis A.

AU - Schaub, Michael

AU - Senar, Juan C.

AU - Sergio, Fabrizio

AU - Solonen, Tapio

AU - Solovyeva, Diana V.

AU - Stępniewski, Janusz

AU - Thompson, Paul M.

AU - Tobolka, Marcin

AU - Török, János

AU - van de Pol, Martijn

AU - Vernooij, Louis

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Westneat, David F.

AU - Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.

AU - Wiącek, Jarosław

AU - Wiebe, Karen L.

AU - Wood, Andrew G.

AU - Wuczyński, Andrzej

AU - Wysocki, Dariusz

AU - Zárybnická, Markéta

AU - Margalida, Antoni

AU - Halupka, Konrad

N1 - Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the information about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka. Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).

PY - 2023/5/9

Y1 - 2023/5/9

N2 - Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

AB - Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

KW - birds

KW - climate change

KW - meta-analysis

KW - offspring production

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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85157985505&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

DO - 10.1073/PNAS.2208389120

M3 - Article

C2 - 37126701

AN - SCOPUS:85157985505

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 120

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 19

M1 - e2208389120

ER -

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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