The impacts of Atlantic bonito rush and the avian influenza on meat products in Turkey

The Atlantic bonito rush experienced in Turkey in the Fall of 2005 coincided with the avian influenza food scare that happened exactly at the same time-period in the country. This study examines the reactions of Turkish retail prices to those events. In this research, using time-series techniques, we investigate how the food scare and the excess fish caught jointly influence the retail prices for beef, chicken, and fish products in Turkey. Historical decomposition of beef, chicken, and fish price series explains the behavior of prices in a neighborhood of the two events. The results showed that both fish and chicken prices fell initially due to those conflicting events, but beef and fish prices increased as more of these products were substituted for chicken.