The Kentucky SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model: Reaching Healthy People 2010 goals through policy change

OBJECTIVES: Healthy People (HP) 2010 has a goal of reducing adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. Kentucky, with the highest adult smoking rates (28.7% versus a US average of 20.9%) and weak tobacco control policies, has the potential to reduce smoking by implementing stricter policies. METHODS: The SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is applied to Kentucky, validated over 1993 to 2003. Smoking prevalence evolves over time through initiation and cessation, as behaviors influenced by tobacco control policies. RESULTS: SimSmoke predicts well over the pre-2007 period, including larger annual decreases in latter years. With policies suggested by HP 2010 goals, smoking prevalence is projected to fall to about 19% by 2011 and 14% by 2026; more than 17,000 smoking-attributable deaths would be avoided by 2026. CONCLUSIONS: SimSmoke suggests policies can have a large impact on smoking rates and save lives in Kentucky. If HP 2010 goals will be met, states such as Kentucky need to implement strong tobacco control policies.