The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Ahyoung Lim; Freya M. Shearer; Kara Sewalk; David M. Pigott; Joseph Clarke; Azhar Ghouse; Ciara Judge; Hyolim Kang; Jane P. Messina; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Katy A.M. Gaythorpe; William M. de Souza; Elaine O. Nsoesie; Michael Celone; Nuno Faria; Sadie J. Ryan; Ingrid B. Rabe; Diana P. Rojas; Simon I. Hay; John S. Brownstein; Nick Golding; Oliver J. Brady

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Ahyoung Lim, Freya M. Shearer, Kara Sewalk, David M. Pigott, Joseph Clarke, Azhar Ghouse, Ciara Judge, Hyolim Kang, Jane P. Messina, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Katy A.M. Gaythorpe, William M. de Souza, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Michael Celone, Nuno Faria, Sadie J. Ryan, Ingrid B. Rabe, Diana P. Rojas, Simon I. Hay, John S. BrownsteinNick Golding, Oliver J. Brady

Microbiology, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

42 Scopus citations

Abstract

Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.

Original language	English
Article number	3418
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	16
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5
State	Published - Dec 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

Funding

This work was discussed with the Technical Advisory Group on arboviruses (TAG-Arbovirus) and WHO yellow fever risk assessment working group. This work was supported by the World Health Organisation Global Arbovirus Initiative, partially funded through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. CDC. OJB was supported by a UK Medical Research Council Career Development Award (MR/V031112/1) which also supports AL. AL was additionally supported by the Basic Science Research Programme through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (2022R1A6A3A03061207). M.U.G.K. acknowledges funding from The Rockefeller Foundation (PC-2022-POP-005), Google.org, the Oxford Martin School Programmes in Pandemic Genomics & Digital Pandemic Preparedness, European Union's Horizon Europe programme projects MOOD (#874850) and E4Warning (#101086640), Wellcome Trust grants 303666/Z/23/Z, 226052/Z/22/Z & 228186/Z/23/Z, the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (#APP8583), the Medical Research Foundation (MRF-RG-ICCH-2022-100069), UK International Development (301542-403), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-063472) and Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF24OC0094346). WMdS was supported by a Global Virus Network fellowship, the Burroughs Wellcome Fund (#1022448), and a Wellcome Trust–Digital Technology Development award (Climate Sensitive Infectious Disease Modelling; 226075/Z/22/Z). CJ was supported by a Bloomsbury Colleges PhD Studentship and a National University of Ireland Denis Phelan Scholarship. SJR was supported by NSF CIBR: VectorByte: A Global Informatics Platform for studying the Ecology of Vector-Borne Diseases (NSF DBI 2016265). SJR was additionally supported by funding to Verena (viralemergence.org), including NSF BII 2021909 and NSF BII 2213854. MC was supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. KAMG received funding from Gavi [Grant ID: 226727_Z_22_Z], BMGF [Grant Numbers INV-034281 and INV-009125 / OPP1157270] and/or the Wellcome Trust via the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium during the course of the study. KAMG also acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/X020258/1), funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC). This UK funded award is carried out in the frame of the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. KAMG reports speaker fees from Sanofi Pasteur outside the submitted work.

Funders	Funder number
National Research Foundation of Korea
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
United Kingdom Research and Innovation
National University of Ireland Galway
TAG-Arbovirus
World Health Organization
Wellcome Trust	226052/Z/22/Z, 228186/Z/23/Z, 303666/Z/23/Z
UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council	MR/V031112/1
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation	MR/X020258/1, 226727_Z_22_Z, INV-063472, INV-034281, INV-009125 / OPP1157270
Horizon Europe programme projects MOOD	874850, 101086640
Neurosciences Foundation	BII 2213854, DBI 2016265, BII 2021909
Ministry of Education China	2022R1A6A3A03061207
Department for International Development, UK Government	301542-403
Burroughs Wellcome Fund	226075/Z/22/Z, 1022448
Novo Nordisk Fonden	NNF24OC0094346
Rockefeller Foundation, The	PC-2022-POP-005
Medical Research Council-São Paulo Research Foundation	MRF-RG-ICCH-2022-100069

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General
General Physics and Astronomy

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

Cite this

Lim, A., Shearer, F. M., Sewalk, K., Pigott, D. M., Clarke, J., Ghouse, A., Judge, C., Kang, H., Messina, J. P., Kraemer, M. U. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., de Souza, W. M., Nsoesie, E. O., Celone, M., Faria, N., Ryan, S. J., Rabe, I. B., Rojas, D. P., Hay, S. I., ... Brady, O. J. (2025). The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. Nature Communications, 16(1), Article 3418. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

@article{d8da5e9477b24d8283257c097e59bf4e,

title = "The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever",

abstract = "Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95\% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.",

author = "Ahyoung Lim and Shearer, \{Freya M.\} and Kara Sewalk and Pigott, \{David M.\} and Joseph Clarke and Azhar Ghouse and Ciara Judge and Hyolim Kang and Messina, \{Jane P.\} and Kraemer, \{Moritz U.G.\} and Gaythorpe, \{Katy A.M.\} and \{de Souza\}, \{William M.\} and Nsoesie, \{Elaine O.\} and Michael Celone and Nuno Faria and Ryan, \{Sadie J.\} and Rabe, \{Ingrid B.\} and Rojas, \{Diana P.\} and Hay, \{Simon I.\} and Brownstein, \{John S.\} and Nick Golding and Brady, \{Oliver J.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

number = "1",

}

Lim, A, Shearer, FM, Sewalk, K, Pigott, DM, Clarke, J, Ghouse, A, Judge, C, Kang, H, Messina, JP, Kraemer, MUG, Gaythorpe, KAM, de Souza, WM, Nsoesie, EO, Celone, M, Faria, N, Ryan, SJ, Rabe, IB, Rojas, DP, Hay, SI, Brownstein, JS, Golding, N & Brady, OJ 2025, 'The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever', Nature Communications, vol. 16, no. 1, 3418. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

AU - Lim, Ahyoung

AU - Shearer, Freya M.

AU - Sewalk, Kara

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Clarke, Joseph

AU - Ghouse, Azhar

AU - Judge, Ciara

AU - Kang, Hyolim

AU - Messina, Jane P.

AU - Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

AU - Gaythorpe, Katy A.M.

AU - de Souza, William M.

AU - Nsoesie, Elaine O.

AU - Celone, Michael

AU - Faria, Nuno

AU - Ryan, Sadie J.

AU - Rabe, Ingrid B.

AU - Rojas, Diana P.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Brownstein, John S.

AU - Golding, Nick

AU - Brady, Oliver J.

PY - 2025/12

Y1 - 2025/12

N2 - Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.

AB - Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105002963953

UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=105002963953&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

M3 - Article

C2 - 40210848

AN - SCOPUS:105002963953

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 16

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 3418

ER -

The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this