The Sustainable Forestry Initiative's impact on stumpage markets in the US South

Using survey data and an equilibrium displacement model, we estimate the market and economic impacts of the American Forest and Paper Association's Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) on stumpage markets in the US South. We examine four timber product markets: softwood pulpwood, softwood sawtimber, hardwood pulpwood, and hardwood sawtimber. In each market we calculate changes in producer and consumer welfare using the equilibrium displacement model that accounts for reductions in timber inventories caused by SFI compliance. We find that SFI compliance costs the US South's economy about $36 million annually. SFI-compliant stumpage producers lose more than $33 million each year in producer surplus as a result of SFI compliance, and consumers lose about $12 million annually in consumer surplus due to higher product prices. These costs are offset partially by benefits to nonindustrial private forest producers, non-SFI-compliant industry producers, and public forest producers, who collectively gain about $10 million in producer surplus annually as a result of higher stumpage prices.