Time Series Modeling of Methane Gas in Underground Mines

Juan Diaz, Zach Agioutantis, Dionissios T. Hristopulos, Steven Schafrik, Kray Luxbacher

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Methane gas is emitted during both underground and surface coal mining. Underground coal mines need to monitor methane gas emissions to ensure adequate ventilation is provided to guarantee that methane concentrations remain low under different production and environmental conditions. Prediction of methane concentrations in underground mines can also contribute towards the successful management of methane gas emissions. The main objective of this research is to develop a forecasting methodology for methane gas emissions based on time series analysis. Methane time series data were retrieved from atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) of three underground coal mines in the USA. The AMS data were stored and pre-processed using an Atmospheric Monitoring Analysis and Database Management system. Furthermore, different statistical dependence measures such as cross-correlation, autocorrelation, cross-covariance, and variograms were implemented to investigate the potential autocorrelations of methane gas as well as its association with auxiliary variables (barometric pressure and coal production). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model which is based on auto-correlations of the methane gas is investigated. It is established that ARIMA used in the one-step-ahead forecasting mode provides accurate estimates that match the direction (increase/decrease) of the methane gas emission data.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1961-1982
Number of pages22
JournalMining, Metallurgy and Exploration
Volume39
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Inc.

Keywords

  • ARIMA forecasting
  • Atmospheric monitoring systems
  • Methane gas concentration
  • Time series modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • General Chemistry
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Metals and Alloys
  • Materials Chemistry

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